World Series

Smart guy Gammons. He learned baseball and many other things in Chapel Hill. He's wrong about one thing though, Phillies in 6, not 7....

 

I wonder what the record is for total runs scored by both teams in a world series? I bet the teams era will balloon with these lineups

 

from ESPN Insider:

Phillies:
General manager Pat Gillick has been very aggressive about trying to upgrade the Phillies' pitching staff on the fly, and his moves have mostly paid off -- enough to cover the team's excessive commitment to using Adam Eaton and Kyle Kendrick (neither of whom should sniff October).

With one of the NL's few AL-style offenses and a strong bullpen, the Phillies are set up well to win at least one short playoff series.

Strengths
The Phillies boasted the NL's best bullpen this season, more than anything else the product of their trade of spare parts for out-of-favor closer Brad Lidge. (Michael Bourn, supposedly the centerpiece of the deal, posted a **.588 OPS** for Houston this year.) Lidge's slider is close to what it was in his peak years in Houston, like a hard power curveball in the mid-80s that just never stops breaking, and he's sitting 93-94 once he gets going.

Ryan Madson is an unsung hero in the set-up role, working up to 96 mph with a changeup that's plus because he maintains his arm speed so well, getting a little tumble on the pitch to boot. Even Scott Eyre, who was awful in Chicago, has pitched well and should be able to come in to get a tough left-handed hitter out; he'll even try to back right-handed hitters off with fastballs at 92-93 in on their hands and finish them with changeups away.

There is a caveat, however: The back end of their 'pen is shaky. J.C. Romero is showing significantly less command and control than he did in 2007 (when he was worked really hard down the stretch); Clay Condrey is pitching with fringe-average stuff at best, with no pitch to miss a bat; and neither Chad Durbin (who gets killed by lefties) nor Rudy Seanez should inspire any confidence if brought into a leveraged situation.

The Phillies' offense remains one of the better ones in the NL, although it's not the powerhouse it was in 2007. It led the NL in home runs and finished second in slugging, and it's as power-driven as it has been since this nucleus started to come together.

The Phillies get patience from Chase Utley, Ryan Howard (against right-handers) and Pat Burrell, all of whom will make opposing pitchers work. They typically field a lineup with seven players who have average to above-average power for their positions, the only exception being behind the plate. They have some softness in the middle when facing left-handers (against whom Utley and especially Howard have been neutralized), but are stronger overall in those games with the emergence of Jayson Werth, who has always mashed lefties when he has been healthy, and of Shane Victorino, who is much stronger and more comfortable from the right side.

Against righties, Utley and Howard are superhuman -- Howard doesn't see the ball half as well out of lefties' hands and will chase soft stuff away -- and Greg Dobbs fills in well as the platoonmate for Pedro Feliz, but the rest of the lineup is weaker.

They're also an outstanding baserunning club. Jimmy Rollins, always a plus baserunner, has entered Carlos Beltran territory, succeeding in more than 90 percent of his steal attempts this year, while Werth and Utley are both high-percentage base stealers, even though Utley is a below-average runner. No one on the team with more than two attempts has a success rate below 75 percent, which is as close to perfection as you'll ever see in a club that uses the stolen base as a serious weapon.

The front end of the Phillies' rotation is anchored by one of the best left-handers in the game in Cole Hamels. He'll pitch with a solid-average fastball but will add and subtract as needed, running up to 94 once or twice a game. He'll also pitch inside effectively to left- and right-handed hitters. His out pitch is a plus-plus changeup with great arm speed and major fade. He throws an average curve with two-plane break but without great depth; he has to aim low to get depth on the pitch. Hamels has some funk in his delivery, adding to his deception. When he keeps his fastball on the inner half and doesn't overuse the curveball, he can dominate.

And while they don't get much credit for it, the Phillies have a strong defensive club overall, with just two players who are liabilities in Burrell (there's a reason they don't call him "Pat the Glove") and Howard (improved this year, but still not good). Utley and Feliz are among the best in the game at their positions; Feliz could easily play shortstop, while Utley combines sure hands and solid range at a position where many teams eschew defense for more thump. Rollins might not have deserved the Gold Glove he won last year with his bat, but he's actually improved a little at short this year, especially on popups behind him that might typically fall in between the infielders and outfielders.

Weaknesses
The Phillies' strong offensive core hides some weaknesses underneath the surface. They finished just **sixth in OBP** despite having several patient hitters in their lineup. They suffered some with the loss of Aaron Rowand -- although it has hardly been San Francisco's gain -- but have been hit harder by the regression of several hitters. Howard has become a player in need of a platoon partner; he looks lost against most left-handed pitchers and is just hoping for them to make a mistake. While he still can take a left-hander out of the park, Howard's making too many outs, often in bad at-bats. Burrell has looked slower than ever, both physically and in terms of his bat, even though it's his contract year. And even Utley, one of the 10 best players in the majors, has been in an extended funk since the All-Star break; he's feeling for the ball and won't drop the bat head to get to the ball down in the zone like he usually does. He's had a minor hip injury for most of the season, and it's possible that that's the cause for the slight changes in his mechanics.

Their bench will be limited if Charlie Manuel follows the typical pattern and carries seven or eight relievers on his postseason roster. The Phillies have to carry a second catcher, Greg Dobbs to platoon with Feliz, Matt Stairs to platoon with Werth and/or pinch hit for Burrell, and an emergency infielder like Eric Bruntlett. That leaves just one spot for an all-purpose pinch hitter if they go with a 12-man pitching staff. They could go with an 11-man staff, but might burn the extra bench spot on a pinch-running type like So Taguchi or even Greg Golson.

Their rotation, while improved, also has its red flags. The good version of Brett Myers is nearly unhittable, throwing a huge percentage of curveballs (a plus pitch with a sharp, accelerating break) and pairing it with a solid-average fastball with some bore. But he has also been very homer-lucky, and if he doesn't have a good feel for his curveball on any given night -- which does happen -- he's cannon fodder. Joe Blanton's stuff is flat and he doesn't have a real out pitch, so he needs some luck and a good night from his defense. And the ageless wonder, Jamie Moyer, throwing 81-83 mph two-seamers and 74-76 mph changeups with the occasional breaking ball, needs a compliant, overeager opponent to buy into his deception. Even Hamels, the clear ace of the staff, has given up five runs or more seven times this season; since he's had a lot of major and minor injury trouble dating back to high school, Hamels enters October more than 40 innings above his previous one-year high, and it's starting to show.

 

Rays
The Rays weren't expected to contend for the playoffs until the products of their stacked farm system could establish themselves in the majors, maybe in 2009 or 2010. But the Rays have arrived ahead of schedule with just one major new contributor from that system -- presumptive Rookie of the Year Evan Longoria.

Despite winning the tough American League East, however, they're not the strongest team in the AL heading into the playoffs.

Strengths
The Rays' turnaround is the direct result of their massive improvement in run-prevention ability, which stems partly from their pitching but more than anything else from their defense. The Rays went from having one of the worst team defenses in the past 50 years to having the best defense in baseball (in a pretty good year for team defenses, with Toronto, Boston and Philadelphia all playing great D this season). The Rays' biggest improvement is in their infield, where they boast plus defenders at second, third and first, and the erratic but rangy Jason Bartlett at short.

How They'll Win
• Deep shutdown performances from their top three starters, backed by good defensive play, which is by and large how they won the division.

• Erratic control by opposing pitchers, allowing the Rays to rack up baserunners via the walk, especially if it's ahead of the brief heart of their lineup.

• An impatient opponent that relies on putting the ball in play will run into an unexpected surprise as the Rays' defense converts more of those balls into outs. When the Rays are able to play Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Gabe Gross in the outfield -- which hasn't been the case since the end of July because Crawford and then Upton went down with injuries -- they enjoy tremendous range at all three spots, with good throwing arms in center and right.

The Rays' front three -- maybe even four -- starters can all be shutdown pitchers. Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza and Edwin Jackson all cook with gas, with Jackson showing the most heat (hitting 98 mph in the seventh inning of a start in early September, sitting 92-95) and Kazmir the best repertoire (with a hard slurve in the low 80s and a 78-81 mph changeup with good tail). Garza sits in the middle of these two in terms of repertoire, showing four pitches but working primarily with his fastball and slider; his leap forward this year is due to a major improvement in his fastball command and the move to a great defensive club. Jackson is arguably the biggest beneficiary of that defense, as his command is poor and he doesn't get the swings and misses that velocity like his should get. But he generates weak contact and lets his fielders do their thing. These three are joined by No. 2 starter James Shields, who works with a barely average fastball but commands it extremely well, pairs it with one of the best changeups in baseball and throws a solid-average curveball with tight rotation. If the Rays are too scared of Jackson's command issues -- a valid phobia -- they could slot in Andy Sonnanstine, whose command is as good as Jackson's stuff, but whose stuff is as good as Jackson's command. Sonnanstine has a two-seamer with average velocity and two fringy breaking balls, but he changes eye levels and works in and out to hitters to keep them off balance, all while avoiding free passes.

How They'll Lose
• Too much work for the Rays' top-heavy bullpen is going to lead to trouble, either reduced stuff from Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell or leveraged innings handed to arms like Troy Percival.

• Scott Kazmir's stuff remains strong, but his control has been shaky for two months, and Edwin Jackson is far too hittable for a pitcher with his stuff.

• Playoff starters have good stuff or good command, and often have both, which will pose problems for the top and the bottom of Tampa's lineup. Tampa's lineup features a number of patient hitters who can induce deep counts; the Rays hit for power, but don't make a lot of contact. It's a "Moneyball" lineup in the way the term is usually misused: a take-and-sometimes-rake approach that overcomes (or shows the irrelevance of) the low team batting average. Upton and Carlos Pena work the count extremely well, but both have their issues making contact, and Akinori Iwamura has similar patience writ smaller. Even part-time players like Gross and Eric Hinske show patience, as does Longoria, although all three need to improve their two-strike approaches. The patient approach slips toward the bottom of the lineup, with Dioner Navarro and Bartlett hurrying things along, but in general the Rays will make opposing pitchers work and either force a mistake or take their walks. They have plenty of speed, with four plus runners in their typical lineup (assuming either Crawford or Fernando Perez plays left), although they'd do well to give Iwamura the red light whenever he's on first.

Weaknesses
The Rays have an average offense when they're at full strength, which they very well may not be for the first round of the playoffs. Their best hitter, Longoria, is just coming back from a broken wrist and is still somewhat rusty, chasing fastballs off the plate when he should be laying off of them. Crawford is even rustier after missing most of the past two months of the season, and his performance prior to his injury was a disappointment. And Upton is still working on recovering his timing after a two-week layoff in September.

On balance, however, the offense is the team's weakest spot. Even with Crawford playing, the Rays don't get enough production from either corner outfield spot; Bartlett has taken a big step backwards this year at the plate; and Navarro has regressed to his usual self after a very hot start, hitting .266/.328/.391 with very limited power and a swing-first-and-ask-questions-later approach over the final four months.

Question Marks
• Will the Rays' offense suffer when facing pitchers with better control in the postseason?

• Will Joe Maddon try to shoehorn his veteran relievers, especially Percival, into roles better filled by less experienced arms?

• Can all of the young Rays players handle the pressure of their first October? (Answer: Of course they can. This isn't really a question mark, no matter how many times you hear it over the next few weeks.) More importantly, the Rays don't hit for a lot of power. Among regulars, only Longoria, Pena and Upton have above-average raw power, and Upton hasn't shown his at all in games this year, perhaps because of the torn labrum in his left shoulder. Outside of those three hitters, just about every Rays hitter can be challenged on the inner half and/or beaten with breaking stuff away. Additionally, the Rays have been bad with men in scoring position this year, although that's more likely a fluke than anything; for example, a recent study on Beyond the Box Score showed little to no correlation between contact rate and hitting with runners in scoring position.

The Rays' pen could be a strength or a weakness, depending on its composition and alignment. Troy Percival's hot April only masked how little he has left in the tank as well as his inability to throw on consecutive days; he can't miss a bat and his average fastball sits in the zone like a dead parrot. The Rays' two best relievers are Grant Balfour, who pumps mid-90s four-seamers by hitters with some deception and the apparent "rise" of the pitch but doesn't throw anything else, and J.P. Howell, who has to pitch backwards, trying to avoid contact on his fringe-average fastball and missing bats with a hard slurve and an inconsistent but sometimes-plus changeup. The Rays could add a devastating weapon to their postseason bullpen if they carry David Price, who should be death to left-handed hitters with a mid-90s fastball and a slider with great tilt to go with a very aggressive approach.