Where is the bottom ?

I really thought that the drop in the price of oil would have had a big impact on the market. It seems to have no bearing at all. STRANGE !!!

 

4 straight days of solid gains. It looks like the Dow is on a rebound. I bought several stocks last week and they all have made money. I don't want to be overly greedy but I think the market is going to go on a good uptick.

 

World oil consumption has not dropped remotely near what it should have to make $147 a barrel be an honest price. Oil should have been selling at between $60 & $80 a barrel a day to begin with. All the rest was speculators going around regulation using loopholes. At $147 a barrel speculators were moving paper on another 375 million barrels a day that was not being consumed. That is like dropping another whole industrialized Nation on the Planet at once. Look back at normal world oil consumption growth up until 2004 and what has happened since then. Like everyone else in the market when the hedge and pension funds had to start showing real money everyone had to get out because they didn't have it. Then reality took over again.

 

I need the market to go up some for a little bit and look like a real rally so I can buy gold cheaper.

 

..and then crash again. Credit card debt is next.

 

And commercial mortgages. Without being able to charge things, businesses and stores will go the way of the buggy whip. Malls are already in foreclosure in several states. Then in 2010, jumbo and Alt-A mortgages start resetting. Good times.

 

Token you must have watched C-Span Saturday morning. I listened to the expert that was on there say the same thing. He said we were going to see a lot of stores close in the first quarter of next year because they will be unable to secure floor plans{loans} from the banks for 2009.

 

Brick and mortar is so 2007.

 

You will see Commercial really tank in 2009. Quite a few bankruptcies will occur as firms have debt coming due that they can't re-fi. Guy I know brokers commercial deals and has a ton in the pipeline and no banks stepping up to make it happen even on deals that are no-brainers.

 

Yep. I'm thinking that will actually happen before the credit card debt goes in the pooper.