What stocks are you watching?

I would be leery of any stock with fundamentals that bad. Too much risk for my taste.

 

Not for the faint of heart...that's for sure. Basically they have 1 drug that brings in 15 mill or so in revenue. The rest is being pumped into R&D. They've also spent a ton on hiring a global sales force. This is really a swing for the fence. Mangagement all have good track records and their drug will be best in class. They received an "approvable" letter from the FDA. Means there are a few issues to clear up before they give the "approved" stamp.

I'm looking to unload half in the 12-14 range. 25% if it hits 18. Hold the other 25% for long term.

I've been cooked before on some of my homeruns...but I'm way up over all.

Oh, and this is only a portion of what I'm investing!

 

I took a flyer on $500 worth of stock in a tech company a few years ago. It was trading at about $1 per share but it had been at $14 less than a year prior. I had a hot tip that they were about to release the best quarterly report they had gotten in a long time. What they did get was a going concern opinion from their auditors and the stock dropped to 25 cents per share.

 

Lucent Tech, Duke Energy and Piedmont Natural Gas.

I'm hoping this Alcatel deal will push Lucent Stock back up a good bit, or at least whatever stock we get out of the merger.

 

Freak,


Looks like you got a positive spike in trading activity last week.

An SEC 8K Fair Disclosure filing on 9/11/06 in conjunction with a presentation made to Think Equity Partners evidently triggered quite a bit of buying activity on the 15th..volume went above 4 million when Argus issued a Buy rating same day..Do you know what info was disclosed? Activity today is similar..looks like this one is bouncing around quite a bit today.

 

Nothing NEW is out. The CEO had a conference call last week...nothing big. Basically said there is 1 issue out there with the FDA. Feels it can be handled WITHOUT further clinical trials.

I hope for the FDA approval within 60 days...maybe 30...

Look at MYOG. Worse fundamentally...their new drug is a competitor for ENCY's. Funny thing....MYOG is AT LEAST 6 months behind. Only thing they have is a silver tongued CEO. Look at their value....

 

Freak,

Took a look at MYOG
The main difference is that it has no long term debt-0 debt, and $149 mil in equity, has a really good liquid position with $170 mil in working capital.

ENCY has $130 mil in Long term debt, ($64 mil) negative equity and less than $46 mill in working capital.


ENCY is burning cash and will soon have to seek additional financing or secondary offering. MYOG has a year or more to go before it needs additional financing ..and won't have too much trouble getting it since they have no debt.

On the positives for ENCY..at least they have a little inventory..MYOG has none..I didn't go to their website..don't know where they stand with their products.


However,ENCY has 17 million more outstanding shrs than MYOG it will take much longer for it to achieve profits per share.

 

True on the debt...and shares. They still are reliant on 1 drug...and they've sold away quite a bit of the distribution rights in order to raise cash for NOW. ENCY gambled and hired a sales staff of it's own.



Right NOW MYOG is better off financially. ENCY is set up to a. Have their drug to market MUCH sooner b. Reap 100% of the benefits

RIGHT NOW ENCY is worth 266 Million....MYOG 1.4 Billion. Way too far apart. Especially since both are relying on the 1 BIG drug....with ENCY WAY ahead in the race.

They are already approved in Europe. MYOG hasn't finished clinical trials.

It's a swing at the fence for sure. I haven't lost any confidence in it.

 

I think some institutional investors agree with you..it is 61% owned by them..and someone bought a large amount after the presentation last week...that 8k filing was a fair disclosure filing and the volume soared within next day or so..just pointing out why the valuation between the two stocks was so different...hope it works out for you.

 

All my stuff is in retirement mutual funds. I watch the day to day market just for kicks.