Saints at Carolina Fantasy View

New Orleans (3-0) at Carolina (1-2)
When and Where: Sunday, October 1, 1 p.m. ET, Charlotte, NC

Game-time Weather Report: Partly Cloudy; 78 degrees; 7-mph winds; 20% chance of precipitation

Matchup Overview:

The Saints are one of the best stories of the young season, but their 3-0 record might not look as good as you think on closer inspection; the Browns and Packers aren’t very good, and everything about Monday’s home opener essentially made it a trap game for Atlanta. The Panthers will provide a much sterner test; Carolina would be 2-1 if not for John Fox’s inexplicable brain cramp in Minnesota, and this still looks like a roster that could make a deep playoff run, especially if Steve Smith can stay in one piece. Look for the Panthers to burst the bubble, taking the Saints down off the short week.

Looking Glass:
Looking Better Than Usual:

Steve Smith (WR, NO) – He looked pretty sweet in his debut, didn’t he? The assignment gets easier here, as the Saint corners can be taken downfield (we saw Braylon Edwards make some plays against this unit, and Brett Favre riddled the Saints two weeks ago). You spent a high pick to land Superman, and now you get to enjoy the ride. He just needs to stay healthy and all will be well.


John Kasay (PK, Car) – It’s not getting enough play but his performance last week at Tampa Bay was one of the best we’ve ever seen (four kicks from 46 yards and out – the first time in NFL history that’s been done – including the game winner with two seconds left). But keep in mind it’s not like this has come out of nowhere – Kasay drilled the ball long and straight all summer, and he had multiple makes in the first two games of the year. If you waited on this position and snagged Kasay late, call it highway robbery. He’s tied to a good defense, a warm climate, a favorable schedule, and what still looks like a winning team to us. Too many words – yeah, keep playing
him.

Jake Delhomme (QB, Car) – He’s got his stud target back in Steve Smith, Keyshawn Johnson is coming off a huge game, and the New Orleans secondary is one of the weaker ones in the league. Delhomme might not need to wing it for four quarters in this matchup, but we like his chances to get something of note done here, especially with Smith looking so fresh last week. If Drew Brees and the Saints can put up a fight, then Delhomme should be your hommie come Sunday night.

Marques Colston (WR, NO) – He’ll get an excellent test by Carolina’s strong cornerbacks, but we love what we’ve seen from Young MC so far this year: a smart, physical, reliable target who’s quickly hammered out a rapport with Drew Brees. We don’t see Colston having a lot of quiet games this season, no matter who the opponent is. He’s essentially become the most reliable downfield option the team has, and at the end of the day they will need him this week after the fall behind, possibly way behind, so plug him in yet again.


Looking Neither Better Nor Worse Than Usual:


DeShaun Foster (RB, Car) – We look at the Saint front seven on paper and we expect teams to run around, over, and through them, and yet the stats tell a different story: New Orleans has been the stingiest defense in the NFC when it comes to handing out fantasy production to opposing backs. How is this possible, you ask? Well, throw out the Cleveland result – the Browns have no offensive line and Charlie Frye bogarts the ball at the goal line. The Saints did stack up Ahman Green and the Falcon running game, though, and that’s impressive. And given Foster’s ability to come up small at any point in time (if you’ve ever owned him you know all about this), there’s only so much optimism you can have on his behalf.



Reggie Bush (RB, NO) – He’s still looking for that first touchdown and the presence of Deuce McAllister takes away a lot of his value, but the Carolina front seven hasn’t gotten off to the best of starts against the run, and these linebackers can be taken in coverage, especially with Dan Morgan out. Add it all up and Bush isn’t a bad play, and he becomes a rock-solid play in PPR leagues. This week, in particular, he has a good chance to catch a ton of passes, since the Saints will almost certainly be playing from behind.



Deuce McAllister (RB, NO) – There’s nothing exciting about him these days – we’re not talking about an upside back – but he’ll get you 80-100 total yards most weeks, and he’ll get the goal-line touches when the Saints get in close. Just be careful if you don’t see the New Orleans defense stopping the Panthers, because if the Saints need to play catch-up in the second half, it might be hard for McAllister to stay on the field. Dan Morgan being out definitely helps, though.



Drew Brees (QB, NO) – He’s got a fair amount of weapons to work with, a very smart head coach and offensive brain trust, and a game situation that could play into some fourth-quarter passing and GTP out the door. With all due respect to the Carolina secondary (a very sound group), we’ll be surprised if Brees doesn’t so something here, and there’s a chance he could do quite well. As for the shoulder, so far, so good – you’d never know he had the surgery, so far as we can tell. It’s hard to imagine that Brees failed his physical with the Dolphins earlier in 2006.



Joe Horn (WR, NO) – He’s no longer the main man here (10-160, no TDs, 18 targets), but at least the game sets up for New Orleans to be throwing late. Horn absolutely owned the Panthers prior to 2005, but last year’s injury-plagued season has a lot of people gun shy on him, us included. Let’s see some production first.



Looking Worse Than Usual:

None of note.



Too Risky To Play:

None of note.



Reaches of the Week:



Keyshawn Johnson (WR, Car) – The return of Steve Smith opens a lot for Johnson, and obviously he looked pretty good himself, ripping apart his former team. Mind you Johnson normally can’t score from distance and he might never see another rushing TD in his career, so maybe there’s a sell-high opportunity to look into. But we know he should be good for a couple of plays against the beatable New Orleans corners, who will be doubling and tripling Superman all day long.



DeAngelo Williams (RB, NO) – With all due respect to the Saint defense and their efforts against the run so far, they still have a shaky LB corps and run defense in general. We expect the Panthers to win going away here (keep in mind the post-MNF buzzkill the Saints are likely to feel), so it’s the perfect week to get Williams the ball to see exactly what he can do with it.



Devery Henderson (WR, NO) – The Saints have done a good job taking advantage of his speed and playmaking abilities, and in a game in which they will have to throw a lot, with the guys on the outside getting a lot of attention, he’s certainly worth a long-shot play this week if you need some upside.



History Report:

These teams met in Week One at Carolina (just days after Hurricane Katrina destroyed New Orleans). It was an emotional victory for the Saints in the final seconds of the game, 23-20. And in Week Fifteen at Baton Rouge, the Panthers won 27-10. In 2004, these NFC South rivals met in Week Thirteen at New Orleans (32-21, Panthers) and in Week Seventeen at Carolina (21-18, Saints).



Panthers – In that Week One game back in 2005, Carolina QB Jake Delhomme was 19/31 for 221 yards and 1 TD, with 2 INTs. RB Stephen Davis had 13 carries for 81 yards and 1 short TD, while WR Steve Smith had 8 receptions for 138 yards and a TD. And PK John Kasay hit on 2 FGs (39,46) in the late loss to the Saints to open the 2005 season. It was a game in which both kickers had 2 FGs in the 4th quarter, but, unfortunately for Kasay, the other guy got the last kick. In the Week Fifteen game on the road, Delhomme was 13/21 for 176 yards, with 1 TD and 1 INT. He also scored on a 2-yard quarterback sneak. Carolina RB DeShaun Foster had 21 carries for 75 yards without a score. WR Steve Smith, like his QB, was successful on two fronts in that game late in the ’05 season. He had 6 receptions and a TD, and he also had a 20-yard rushing TD in the Week Fifteen win at LSU’s Tiger Stadium last year.

 

Delhomme was 22/29 for 294 yards and 1 TD against the Saints in Week Thirteen last season, and RB Nick Goings was impressive, with a big 36 carries for 122 yards and 1 TD, along with 6 receptions for 46 yards. Former Panther WR Muhsin Muhammad also got the job done for Carolina in ‘04 in that game against the Saints, with 10 catches for 179 yards and 1 TD. But PK John Kasay stole the show with his 6/6 performance (30,50,46,25,21,21). Four weeks later, Delhomme was very active (24/50, 307 yards and 2 TDs and a 2-point conversion pass). The Panther ground game was not productive in Week Seventeen in 2004 versus New Orleans, but Muhammad again came through with 95 yards and 2 TDs.



Saints – The Saints were understandably emotional when they faced their division-rival Carolina Panthers at Charlotte to open the 2005 season. However, they used that energy to carry them to a win against the odds. QB Aaron Brooks had 224 yards (3/32 rushing), but 0 TDs and 0 INTs. RB Deuce McAllister, though, picked up the slack and had 26 carries for 64 yards and 2 TDs. Both teams missed out on several scoring opportunities, but it came down to a tie in the 4th quarter with about a minute left on the clock. Aided by 2 passes (11 and 25 yards) to WR Joe Horn (5/66), Brooks was able to get the Saints in FG range, and PK John Carney, who had 2 other FGs of 29 and 48 yards, made good on the 47-yard attempt to win the game with 3 ticks left on the clock. In Week Fifteen, Todd Bouman was the New Orleans QB. He was 15/34 for 193 yards, with 1 TD and 4 INTs. RB Aaron Stecker was 9/59, but former Saint WR Donte Stallworth (5/102) caught the only NO TD in the Week Fifteen losing game that was played in Baton Rouge, LA, last season.

In Week Thirteen last season against the Panthers, Brooks was 20/40 for251 yards and 3 TDs, with 2 INTs. McAllister was shut down in that game (7/22, 0 TDs), but Horn put on a good show: 8 catches for 160 yards and 2 TD. Stallworth (3/44) caught the other TD pass. In the last game of the season at Carolina, Brooks had 227 total yards and 1 TD, while McAllister was a lot more active, with 154 combined yards (14 receiving) and 1 TD. RB Aaron Stecker scored on his single carry, and Horn (4/75) caught the TD pass.




9/26/06 Update: Smith (hamstring) plays in Week Three. Foster's still the #1 RB, but rookie Williams starting to emerge.


PK Report: Carolina has allowed the second highest number of field goal attempts in 2006. John Carney has attempted the third highest number of field goals in 2006. This one has the makings of a big day for Carney as long as the Saints do not have a letdown from their Monday night win against divisional foe Atlanta. Carney has now converted 19 straight field goals in his last ten games. John Kasay is a perfect 8-for-8 in field goals on the season and has converted fourteen straight field goals. He now has converted two or more field goals per game in six straight games and has at least one field goal in twelve straight games.



Game Prediction:

Panthers 30 Saints 20

 

PP, please remember to include the name of the site this is from, and preferably the link as well. It's cool of you to post it here for people to read, but it's very uncool to post someone else's work without giving them credit.

 

I am not taking credit for anyones work and I posted the source last week when you asked.

 

As mentioned in an earlier post pre game this and all further information I PAID FOR is from www.fantasyguru.com

 

Obviously no one was thinking that you wrote it, but still it's good to say where the material is coming from.