research on 2nd round QBs

from Rob Rang:

Shortly after going on record saying that I prefer taking QBs in the 2nd round, I am releasing statistics that suggest this is considerably more risky.

Before looking at the numbers, keep in mind the fact that most QBs with 2nd round ability are drafted in the 1st round simply because of the league's over-valuing of the position. That said, it is obvious that if every team is over-valuing the position, there isn't much you can do about it draft-wise except over value the position, yourself.

I took a look at the QBs selected in the 1st and 2nd rounds from 1990 through 2000.

Of the 21 quarterbacks (Jeff George, Andre Ware, Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich, David Klingler, Tommy Maddox, Drew Bledsoe, Rick Mirer, Heath Shuler, Trent Dilfer, Steve McNair, Kerry Collins, Jim Drunkenmiller, Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili smith, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown, Chad Pennington) selected in the 1st round over this time, 11 (George, Maddox, Bledsoe, Dilfer, McNair, Collins, Manning, Couch, McNabb, Culpepper, and Pennington) can be considered legitimate starters, although one could argue that neither Jeff George or Tommy Maddox deserve to be on this list. Thus, roughly 55% of the 1st round QBs have turned into legitimate starters.

Of these 11 starters, 7 (Bledsoe, McNair, Collins, Manning, McNabb, Culpepper, and Pennington) can be argued to be among the league's top 10-15 quarterbacks. Thus, 33% of the 1st round QBs have become "good QBs."

For this same span of ten drafts there have been 10 (Bret Favre, Browning Nagle, Tony Sacca, Matt Blundin, Todd Collins, Kordell Stewart, Tony Banks, Jake Plummer, Charlie Batch, and Shaun King) 2nd round quarterbacks. Of this group, only 2 have been consistent starters (Favre, Plummer) though admittedly, you could argue that King, Batch, Stewart, Banks have started and performed well, at times. If you agree that these 2 are the only consistent starters of the bunch, that leaves us at a 20% successful starting rate for 2nd round QBs. Of this initial group of ten, only Favre would be listed among the top 10-15 QBs (though it should be noted many would argue he is #1), which indicates that over the past decade or so, any 2nd round QB has a 10% chance of being a "good QB."

 

someone needs to kick Rob Rang in the mommy-daddy button

 

from CaliPanther>>

I'm in the weird position of having been born and raised in North Carolina, and gone to college at Cal, so I see every Panthers game (through the magic of NFL Sunday Ticket) and every Cal game. I've watched Boller all 4 years of his career, and the only things keeping him from getting all the hype that Palmer did was the lack of talent around him, and the fact that Cal was banned from playing a bowl game this year. But Boller led Cal to a 7-5 record and was the main reason they were bowl eligible. They upset 2 ranked teams (on the road) and scored at least 30 points in 8 of their games, and games where they scored, 41, 46, 55 and 70 points wiht Boller under center. His team actually would have beaten Palmer's USC team if not for a blown call on a TD reception, but they still only lost by 2 with that.

He's potentially as good a QB as Palmer IMHO, and as much as he might be somewhat of a reach at #9, I'd rather see them reach for him than wait on Simms in the second round for four reasons:

1) There's no guarantee that Simms will fall to pick #41, and them having to settle for Ragone might be a worse situation because he's not as good a player and needs work on his mechanics and footwork. He looks slow and heavy-footed, not fluid at all.

2) I think it'll take longer for Simms to be ready to play than it will for Boller. Chris doesn't handle the blitz well, isn't all that mobile, doesn't see the field well and gets rattled pretty easily. He's not as mentally tough as a lot of QBs you see. He'll make two mistakes, and then fall apart rather than pull himself out of it.

3) The QB carousel you mentioned in Carolina has stopped. Peete had the best season of his career, and I love the guy, but he was still barely average statistically, he gets hurt a lot and isn't one of those guys who can do a lot of other things to offset his injury, and he's not a viable solution as a starter past this coming season. Weinke's actually regressed and has shown he can't win the job, and Fasani's about three or four years away from being someone who can contribute and run the offense effectively.

4) The group of FA QBs out there isn't stellar, with Plummer being the best and a guy like Delhomme getting a lot of attention because the FA crop is so weak. Delhomme's ok, and he'd probably be a solid starter for us, but I don't think he's more talented than Boller.

Boller's not that far off from Palmer and Leftwich because of the remaining QBs he's the closest in size, stature, arm strength, athletic ability and intagibles. He doesn't have the glaring weaknesses in his game that the others do. He's bigger than Grossman, more talented and athletic than Ragone, sees the field better than Simms and has at least as good of an arm, if not better than any of them. I saw him throw a pass against Stanford this year from his own endzone, across midfield all the way out to the opposite 40 yard line, and he overthrew his receiver. The one thing he needs to work on is putting more touch ball to improve his accuracy rather than rifling everything.

If my Panthers take Boller at #9, I won't be upset. I love Trufant, but our CB position isn't as deficient as you might think. And it's in much better shape than QB is for us. Terry Cousin and Reggie Howard were solid as starters, as was rookie Dante Wesley, Emmanuel McDaniel was ok as a 4th CB and Terry Fair is back from a broken foot for us to re-sign should we need more talent and depth at that position.

 

>> someone needs to kick Rob Rang in the mommy-daddy button

you should leave the humor to meatpile and find something you're better suited at

 

no my point is he's a fuckin moron

 

This guy just sold me on Boller. Wonder if it would be possible to trade up (package 2nd, 3rd and next years 2nd) to move up to the lower half of the first and grab this guy.

 

we could possibly get someone to trade our secon and our 2 4ths for a lower first... i've seen crazier happen

 

????

We have the #9, dude.

 

Talkin about keepin the 9, and movin up from our pick in the second round to the bottom part of the first.