Panthers-Bucs running thread - 9.24.06

Sun 1 pm, other game is likely Cincy/Pitt. 2nd Fox game is NYG @ Seattle.

Alternate blue this week.

 

some pregame thoughts since I was suggested to do so - I have not watched the Bucs yet this year and therefore have only matchups and a little data mining to offer.



Tampa has a bye in week four, which can't come too soon for them. With possible QB issues, injuries on the lines, and obviously a slow start, it's important for them to feel like they gave all they had this week and to start fresh after. They may be looking to pull out all the stops v/s a Carolina team that had two very obvious awareness mistakes last week. Carolina, meanwhile, may play things conservatively, not only because of the two trick plays, but also because of continued injuries.


Carolina leads this series 5-1 of the last 6, 5-3 overall in the Fox era. The only game lost was last year, where Carnell Williams put up 112 yards despite a meager 138 from Chris Simms. This year, both Simms and Williams are struggling: Simms with a 54.9% completion percentage in a high-percentage offense, 0 TDs and 6 INT, Williams with 23 rushes for 59 yards.

The defense has also been less than adequate, scoring 4 sacks, picking only two balls, and recovering one fumble. Delhomme was sacked 3 times overall in the two matchups last year, in a total of 45 attempts.

Deshaun Foster's first start of last year was the second Tampa Bay game, which netted him on ly 46 yards. In the first game, Stephen Davis was still spry enough, with 48 yards on 12 carries and 2 TDs, Foster chipping in only 23 yards on 16 carries.

The Panthers need to establish the run early, and look for some quick hitters in the run game directly at Derrick Brooks. This will require Wahle pulling much of the time, and effective sealing of MLB Shelton Quarles, who totaled 16 tackles and 6 assists last year v/s Carolina. While Carolina often uses a TE to seek out pursuit from the outside, it might be smarter to cut him with a guard from the inside. Quarles can be run directly on, but that's not this team's best skill. In slow-developing lead plays, you have to account for the MLB, and Quarles can be dangerous there. This may be a good place for Todd Fordham to be useful, putting his size directly against Quarles two gaps away, and crossing behind with Evan Mathis on the DE so the TE can combo-block playside toward pursuit.

The offensive line should see a little shot in the arm this week, with Hangartner having another week and Mathis hopefully learning his lessons. More than that, injuries are eating away at Tampa's interior line, where both Chris Hovan and Anthony McFarland are questionable. Either could play and are gametime decisions - the likelihood is that both will dress, since DEs Ellis Wyms and Dewayne White would have to split time inside otherwise. When healthy, Hovan and McFarland are stout enough, but both are somewhat hobbled, and Carolina had good success using backs inside. Foster may struggle with these runs, as he did last year, and Williams lends himself well to this role.

Simeon Rice lightly injured his knee this week in practice, but that shouldn't be a factor. Rice was shut out by Travelle Wharton last year, no sacks, no tackles, and had one sack and two tackles in two games against Jordan Gross in 2004. Greg Spires has been lately ineffective and has been splitting time with White, who has two sacks.

The interior pass defense is standard to the last few years - Brooks hasn't lost anything in the passing game, and Delhomme would do well to look away from him when dealing with shorter routes to Smith.

Brian Kelly will most likely not dress and is, as of now, out. That won't excuse them from Ronde Barber, but we'll get Juran Boldin (big, stiff, physical) on Keyshawn. Boldin isn't remarkably skilled and may give way to Alan Zemaitis if the passing game jumps for us. Zemaitis is a rookie I felt a lot about in the draft as a 4th corner when we got Howard, but we had Marshall fall to us earlier. He's another large guy, but isn't as lumbering as Boldin, so you'd likely see him match against Carter in 3-wide.
That bumps Boldin down to the slot, where Key will likely play, so it's a good counter for them if they do that; however, if we can get Carter in double moves, Zemaitis has poor footwork and might not be able to hang with Carter even if he recognizes.

Barber matches up well with Steve Smith, and should be locked onto him at all times. That type matchup occasionally gives Smith the room to haul in the hitch passes he's made famous, and may give him enough room to take Barber on double moves when Barber starts trying to jump on routes. At first, Smith should be decoyed so as to judge his effectiveness, then eased into playmaking as the defense shifts some attention to last week's hot hand receiving, Keyshawn Johnson. Johnson should be able to outmuscle Boldin, and may be able to get enough short separation to stay out of fighting for the ball too much.

Naturally, with one starting corner out, the idea of stretching out a defense with formation is a strong consideration. Add that to Nece possibly being gone, and you can stretch a defense into uncomfortability in its base D by subbing out. Stretching both Zemaitis and Boldin on one side leaves them thin, and susceptible to standard draws and base conventions. Motioning Foster or Williams out could pay dividends a few times a game as well, forcing inexperienced players to make choices they could regret in coverage.

I'd also like to see us pick on relatively inexperienced, aggressive duo Will Allen and Jermaine Phillips at S with effective playaction. The pair are less likely to jump Delhomme's stares as well.

 

One big factor in December with Williams gaining 112 yards came without Mike Rucker as the Bucs ran over backup Al Wallace. This week, the entire defensive front is healthy, save for Dan Morgan (concussion), who should miss this week as well. Na'il Diggs should be back, which should strengthen the backside and keep Williams from having the cutback room that has been there the last two weeks. Chris Draft will be in a more familiar inside linebacker role as well, which should stop some of the defensive bleeding. With these additions, assuming gap breakdowns don't reoccur, the Panthers should be able to handle an already slowed Williams.

Tampa will be without first round pick Davin Joseph, once rumored to be a Panther selection. Jeb Terry, former UNC lineman, will play in his place, starting just the second game of his career. Terry has some power, but lacks the technique of Joseph, which can be abused by Damione Lewis in the passing game, and hopefully pushed by Ma'ake Kemoeatu in the running game.

Kenyatta Walker, to Terry's outside, has always struggled to handle Julus Peppers. Peppers had 3 sacks in the first Tampa game of 2005, but was shut out in the final game. Given the improved technique and explosiveness shown in the Minnesota game, Peppers added a very good inside-to-outside move to his arsenal, after struggling for years to effectively master Reggie White's hump move, popular with Rucker. Peppers should not only force Walker into 2-3 penalties this game, as usual, but also significantly disrupt Simms, as long as coverage holds up. The December game of 2005 showed Tampa with a lead, bumping the ball down the field with the run and the short pass, leaving Peppers unable to get at Simms, comfortably 3 steps back in the pocket getting the ball away fast. Still, if last week was any indication, with Peppers dominating both Marcus Johnson and Bryant McKinnie, and Kris Jenkins dominating all-pro Steve Hutchinson, both Walker and Dan Buenning will have long days. Look for Buenning to get ample help from veteran center John Wade, an active but heat-prone, large pivot in the center. Wade has struggled with the heat in the past and isn't the most athletic pivot. It may be in the Bucs' best interests to keep Wade in short space and use secondary blockers to handle the linebackers, and that works in the Panthers' advantage as well. Carolina must get more production out of their linebackers, where least-productive Adam Seward sits this week.

Ken Lucas should play, and draws the assignment of Joey Galloway. Still somewhat explosive, Galloway had 9 receptions for 161 yards in the losing effort last week, including a 55 yarder. Two of Simms' 4 interceptions (one reversed) were targeting Galloway as well. Chris Gamble may be on a short leash for the moment at the other corner, and has the quickness to battle Michael Clayton's physicality, but must stay mechanically sound and try not to be muscled out of plays.

Rookie Richard Marshall faces the crafty Ike Hilliard in the slot on nickel downs. Hilliard isn't a deep threat, or a playmaking threat, having never averaged over ten yards/catch with the Bucs. As long as Marshall is conservative, Hilliard won't be a problem.

Tight ends traditionally harm the Panthers, but Anthony Becht seems harmless. Becht didn't catch a touchdown pass last year, and has never averaged more than ten yards a catch. With only 3 first downs last year, Becht is somewhat of a conservative blocker, and while he may catch a few zone passes, he's not worthy of extra attention such as assigning a player in man. As well, the Bucs haven't paid much attention to their backs in the passing game compared to years past - Alstott (6 rec), Williams (5), and Pittman (4) getting only minor targets.




Michael Pittman has been average returning kicks. Possibly ill-suited to the task, he doesn't look like a starting RB in the role, and has averaged 22 yards with a long of 27. The Bucs haven't fielded many returns, but haven't been good at the ones they've received. Their opponents have outkicked them and outreturned them in the punting game, but do have an edge in kick coverage. Carolina has been conservative with its KR game, with Williams not fielding kicks into the endzone.


If Carolina gets up by a fair margin, look for Simms to possibly be pulled in the 4th quarter for Bruce Gradkowski, who played in the Baltimore game (1/5, 4 yards, one sack). Gardkowski is the leader Simms isn't; he's also the scrambler Simms isn't. He's also inexperienced, tends to flush easily, and doesn't pose a significant threat.

 

:notworthy

 

I'll only get to see the first half, this coaching gig is really cutting into my Panther time! We don't play til 7pm, but I have to be there to be a "game monitor" at 2:30 and my godson plays at 4, so I might as well stay there.

Curious to see how my new 6-2 Gap defense works, hopefully my Steelers will learn how to stay low and tackle belts instead of heads. If we lose it will have to be through the air!!!

Another three weeks of this and I'll be a fulltime Panther again!

 

Btw, Becht is the team's blocking tight end. Alex Smith is the receiver, and has some solid ability. I expect that Tampa will try to use him and also target Michael Pittman out of the backfield. For what it's worth, Pittman has more receiving yards, first downs, and touchdowns against us than any other team.

 

I'll start this thread off with a "Deshaun Foster gets stuffed behind the line of scrimmage" He might be one of the most overrated players in the NFL.

 

I'll start it up with a GODDAMMIT JAKE!!!!!



But seriously, excellent write-up. I do think this game will be won or lost at the LOS. Our linebackers need to stay alert, because they should have some opportunities for ints off of tipped passes. This would be an excellent time for Thomas Davis to make a name for himself.

 

Nice analysis, magnus.

The crowd (noisy against us, turning on the Bucs if they stink it up), the heat (high of 90) and the pressure of a possible 0-3 record with 2 division losses make the psychology of this game particularly fascinating.

 

HEY PANTHERS


WAKE UP !