NFL WildCard games this weekend

Picks:
Atlanta over Green Bay - Vick and GB WRs are banged up
Giants over 49ers - Giants are better overall team
Indy over Jets - Stats say Colts have better offense and defense
Steelers over Browns - Steelers own Browns

 

I don't think so Coach. Atlanta hasn't looked too good at all the last few games. I'm sticking with the Pack. I think it would take a powerhouse to come in and beat them at GB, especially with Favre still there, and Atlanta's not it. But, that's why they call it gambling.

 

the pack is probably the most over rated team in the playoffs...they had six games against detroit, chicago, and mn....they are not good at cb and the o line isn't exactly top notch. the falcons have a very good chance.

 

ATL over GB - Yeah it's going to be cold but the Pack just don't look all that great to me. Vick tears them apart.

SF over NYG - Home field plus getting T.O back helps the Niners squeak out a win.

CLE over PIT - William Green has been hot as of late and Holcomb is better than Couch.

NYJ over IND - Jets hottest team in the league.

 

Since I am going to bet SS , here's who I am rolling with...

Jets/Colts - Pass. Jets are hot as hell, but 6 is a big number (to me anyway). Jets are not exactly great at stopping the pass. I think Piper had it right with win but not cover. I might play the OVER (41.5) if the weather is ok. I have not decided on that totals play yet though.

Pack/Atlanta - A 6.5 line that has not moved an inch says to me "Sucker bet" (see below). The Pack is not the same team they were 8 weeks ago when everyone penciled them in to go Super bowling like they were entitled to it. If not for a dropped pass in the opener, Atlanta would've beaten them in Week 1. If Dan Reeves can overcome the stupidity of last week's goal line sequence of Dunn middle, Fade pass, Dunn middle, Dunn middle this one should come in for the Falcs. Then again, this IS Dan Reeves we are talking about. Maybe not a win, but I think this one will be close.
Also, some of you may remember Kshead's #1 rule of gambling which is "Teams favored by 2.5 are worthless". Rule #2 is "Teams favored by 6.5 are almost as worthless". If I had a buck for every time I have heard someone say "Team A can cover a TD, can't they?" I'd be retired already. It rarely - if ever - works out that way. As I said before, this line/game stinks like hell. Atlanta is the play for me.


San Fran / NY Giants – Second hottest team right now? Giants. Lord help me because I’m taking a team with Kerry at QB, but I just don’t see how I can pass on a team with a hot O going against a team with a lousy pass D. Giants are the play for me here.

Steelers / Cleveland – I am a huge Steeler fan, so I will probably pass here. If I lose the game and some cash too I’ll be really pissed off. Piper has recited the standard analysis for this game (I’ve heard it all week at work too, trust me) and I agree that a lot of the signs point to Cleveland here. The “3 times rule”, Pitt blowing playoff games at home (from NE to Denver to San Diego), Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in road games, etc….
But part of me wants to pull a Corso and say “Not so fast my friend”. Holcombe and the Cleveland O was horrid for 2 quarters last week and couldn’t smell a score until Atlanta gave them a TD by fumbling on their own 11 (while up 16-10) and letting Green get loose for a 65 yard TD run where no one even touched him. So I kinda like the Pitt D in this spot. Also, I think the situation for Pitt is a little different than in previous years where we choked in those playoff games. No one is really thinking that Pitt will/can win. Last year, we rolled into the NE game thinking we would just kill the Pats and after getting punched in the mouth by a punt return we never got up off the carpet. One final note here - I’m FUCKING SICK OF LOSING HOME PLAYOFF GAMES!

Anyway, there’s my long-winded two cents…

Atlanta, Giants for sure and maybe on the Steelers and Jets/Colts OVER. I want to see the weather for NY and where the Steeler line ends up before I make the final call.

 

Maybe your'e right. Could be a good call there.
But I'm sticking with my gut.
Atlanta by 2, in last 2 mins of the game. No comeback for Favre.
They don't play well against 3-4 D's either.

 

All you guys picking Atlanta, hell they lost 3 of their last 4, losing to Seattle, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay and only beating Detroit. Barely beat Minnesota the week before that. They look worse than GB to me.

If they were in Atlanta, I'd pick em, but I'm sticking with the Pack, and will stick with the Pack at Lambeau in the playoffs until they lose. They might not cover, but I've decided to take the Jets too. We'll see.

 

so I can either gloat or take my medicine.

 

I hear ya SS. Let me try it one more time too. First I’ll say this: Gambling is a weird thing. I’ve been doing this regularly around 4-5 years now. This doesn’t make me a genius, of course, it makes me a degenerate. The one thing I have learned though is that one person’s “sure thing” is another person’s “idiotic bet” until the ball is kicked off. I always love to ask other people WHY they like who they like and can spend oodles of time just bullshitting with others about their analysis of teams, pet theories, superstitions and any other factor they use to decide who they will take in any game. I love it. It’s truly fascinating to me. Many times if you ask 10 different people about a game, you can get 10 different answers – just look at this thread. This is not to say that knowing the teams’ qualities “on paper” isn’t important, I just think it’s only part of it.

Anyway…take those 4 Atlanta games you mentioned….at Tampa, vs. Seattle, vs. Detroit, at Cleveland. I had a LONG ramble typed, but I shortened it to:

1) Atlanta will not beat Tampa right now given five tries. The matchup of the Tampa D vs. the Atlanta O favors Tampa WAY too much.
2) They were somewhat flat after Tampa crushed them and still almost beat Seattle – who was probably the hottest non-playoff team at the end of the season. (missed a FG in OT)
3) They lost a game to a playoff-bound Cleveland team that I’m not sure they should have lost. (I know, I know – they DID lose though.)

Add in the fact that Green Bay has beaten exactly one team with a winning record since their BYE week. To me, this makes Atlanta an attractive underdog against a team like Green Bay which does not have the same personnel on D that Tampa does. Green Bay will have to beat them in a track meet. It’s supposed to be cold, so this says (to me) to take the points. I'm actually a lot more worried about Atlanta traveling two weeks in a row than I am the weather.

The “6.5 thing” is a bit of a personal thing with me. I follow the movement of point spreads a lot and I’m serious when I say that I think some spreads are “sucker lines”. People tell me I’m crazy until I show them the numbers I have kept. I have not crunched the numbers for this year yet, but in the previous 3 years (99-01), underdogs getting 6.5 have come in around 67-68% of the time. Feel free to tell me how crazy I pay attention to this, but because of this statistic I just don’t bet on favorites laying 6.5. Ever. I grab the points or I pass.

Anyway, enough rambling. That’s a peek into my degenerate mind for anyone that gives a shit. Anyone that ever wants to shoot the shit about gambling can feel free to shoot me a PM if they want. As I said before, I can go on about this shit for days.

 

Well, I won the Jets but lost Green Bay. Go figure, you Atlanta backers were right. At least I didn't lose anything, I wouldn't have believed the Jets or the Falcons would have dominated the way they did. WOW.

kshead, did you win any money?