NBA Draft Top 15 per ESPN Insider

Player and projected draft position

1 Tyrus Thomas PF 6-9 229 19 LSU Top 5

2 LaMarcus Aldridge PF 6-10 240 20 Texas Top 5

3 Andrea Bargnani PF 7-0 225 20 Italy Top 10

4 Adam Morrison SF 6-8 205 21 Gonzaga Top 10

5 Brandon Roy SG 6-5 195 21 Washington Top 10

6 Rudy Gay SF 6-9 222 19 Connecticut Top 10

7 Randy Foye SG 6-4 205 22 Villanova Lottery

8 Ronnie Brewer SG 6-7 220 21 Arkansas Lottery

9 Shelden Williams PF 6-9 250 22 Duke Lottery

10 Marcus Williams PG 6-3 205 20 Connecticut Lottery to mid-first round

11 Rodney Carney SF 6-7 205 22 Memphis Lottery to mid-first round

12 Tiago Splitter PF 7-0 240 21 Brazil Lottery to mid-first round

13 Patrick O'Bryant C 7-0 250 19 Bradley Lottery to mid-first round

14 J.J. Redick SG 6-4 190 21 Duke Lottery to mid-first round

15 Kyle Lowry PG 6-0 185 20 Villanova Mid to late first round

 

Thomas

Draft Projection: Top 5

Similarities: A more energetic Stromile Swift

Notes: Thomas announced on April 17th that he'll declare for the NBA draft and not hire an agent, ending his college eligibility. He was on no one's Top 100 prospect board at the start of the season. A few of the NBA scouts who live in the area didn't even mention him when I put together my pre-season Top 100 in September.

Positives: Big-time athlete who is getting compared to another LSU alum, Stromile Swift. Flies up and down the floor. Excellent rebounder and shot blocker. Unlike Swift, seems to have excellent intensity and has a better feel for the game. Nice touch on his mid-range jumper.

Negatives: Needs to more muscle. Still thin to play the four in the pros and doesn't have the perimeter skills to move to the three. Doesn't possess much in the way of post moves at the moment.

Scouts Inc. evaluation: Thomas is a "freak" athlete. He has great hops, is extremely long and is one of the quickest jumpers in the college game. He is a high-flyer and incredibly explosive around the rim. In college, if the ball was thrown anywhere up near the rim, he got it..

He is not only a shot-blocker but he is a shot-changer. You have to know where he is at all times. He is very active defensively and is very dangerous as a weak-side help man coming to block the shot. He is solid defensively, works at it and looks like he has been well-schooled. Has good court vision. Looks like he can be a very good NBA defender. He can really cover ground with his quick feet. He is rangy, has quick hands and would be good as a pressure defender. Look for him to be a steal guy at the next level. Knows how to show up on screens, and it appears he would cover ground quickly in pick-and-roll rotation situations..

Thomas is raw offensively but has a pretty good feel for the game. He can shoot the ball from 12-15 feet. The range on his jumper may be his Achilles' heel. Has a face-up one-on-one game and can put it on the floor one or two dribbles and finish. The question is how good his perimeter skills are; it does not appear he is good enough passer or ball-handler to play on the perimeter as a small forward at this point..

He is a very strong rebounder at both ends of the floor. If opponents do not lay a body on him, he will be all over the offensive glass. Early in his career, he might score more of his points on the break and on second-chance points until his full offensive game takes hold.

He is weak physically and needs to gain more strength for the NBA game. He may be stuck initially between the 4 and 3 positions. He does not have enough of a low-post game to play the power forward, and his perimeter skills are lacking to be a small forward. However, because of his size, athleticism, energy and ability to score in other ways right now, he will go in the top 1-3 picks in the draft.

Summary: A so-so performance against UCLA in the Final Four didn't dampen two dominating performances in the tournament against Duke and Texas. A growing number of scouts are saying that Thomas is the best prospect in the draft. His combination of size, athleticism, aggressiveness and skills (he showed some ball handling and a sweet 12 foot baseline jumper against Texas) are unmatched in the draft. Yes, he's still raw offensively. But watching him the tournament, it's getting difficult to come up with reasons why he shouldn't be considered the No. 1 pick in the draft. Eight teams passed on Amare Stoudemire in 2002 because they believed he was too raw to make an impact in the league. There won't be more than two, maybe three teams at the most, who'll pass on Thomas in 2006.

 

Aldridge

Draft Projection: Top 5

Similarities: Chris Bosh

Notes: Annonced on April 11th that he was declaring for the 2006 NBA draft and expected to hire an agent. Suffered a season-ending hip injury, forcing him to miss the last 14 games of a promising freshman season. Head coach Rick Barnes says that Aldridge is totally healthy, has added some strength to his frame and he is expecting a big year from him.

Positives: He is a long (he has a rumored 7-foot-5 wingspan!), athletic forward who can play in the paint or take the ball out on the perimeter. Has European-like big-man skills. Is a good rebounder and shot-blocker. Can handle the ball when he needs to. Intelligent. Good feel for the game. Added some muscle to his lanky frame this summer which has really helped.

Negatives: Could still use a little more bulk. Might be a bit of a tweener. Ideal spot is at the four if he can continue to gain some weight. His biggest problem is convincing his teammates to give him the ball. Aldridge is demanding it the way he should, which has concerned some scouts, but I think it's probably a bigger knock on Daniel Gibson.

Scouts Inc. evaluation: Aldridge has a tremendous upside because of his great length, excellent reach and athleticism. He runs the floor every time in transition, both on the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. He is very active on missed shots; and he goes to the glass. He's a little weak in his upper body and hands going for rebounds. Will improve with added strength. Big-time shot-blocker; very active defensively. Appears to have quick enough feet, to be able to make rotations in defensive assignments.

He is a sweet-shooting big man and has all the offensive tools needed for a post player. He has an excellent face-up game off the lane and can hit the 15-footer easily. In the low block he loves the turnaround jumper off either side. Will sometimes settle for turnaround and fade-away jumpers. Consequently, he does not always get to the free throw line. Needs to take the ball to the rim more with stronger power moves and finish. He also has shown both a jump hook to the middle and even an old fashioned sweeping hook to the middle.

Aldridge has some strength issues, and it shows up in certain areas of his game. Because of his lack of strength, he sometimes appears to fumble the ball and not have a strong grasp of it in traffic. Needs better lower body strength to handle digs and bumping in the post. He works hard to post up versus stronger players but does get pushed out a bit. Cannot get into the lane with back-down dribble versus strong bigs right now. Needs to be get stronger overall to deal with bigger bodies in the NBA.

Aldridge will be a lottery pick, and quite possibly the No. 1 pick of the 2006 draft. He has the athleticism and tools to be an impact player as a rookie. Needs added strength to deal with the physical play of the NBA to be effective and so he will not break down.

Summary: A 26-point, 13-rebound performance against West Virginia in the Sweet Sixteen had scouts buzzing that Aldridge had solidified his place as a potential No. 1 pick in the draft. A 2-for-14 performance against LSU in the Elite Eight had scouts backtracking -- but only a little bit. Aldridge's game against LSU wasn't as bad as it looked in the box score. He did have 10 rebounds and five blocks. Most of his shots were on line, they just didn't go in. While it's clear that big, physical players like Glen Davis of LSU are going to push him further away from the basket, there's not reason to believe that on a better day, Aldridge can hit those shots he took. Besides, how many 320-pound power forwards is he going to have to face in the NBA? Clearly Aldridge needs to get stronger, but scouts believe that the rest of the package is there. Scouts are still debating whether Aldridge or LSU's Tyrus Thomas is the best power forward in the draft.

 

Bargnani

Draft Projection: Top 10

Similarities: Dirk Nowitzki

Notes: Plays for Benetton in Treviso, Italy. In the first 22 games, he's averaging 11.2 ppg and 5.2 rpg in just 19.3 mpg in Italian league play. He's also shooting an impressive 62 percent from the field. He's averaging 10.6 ppg in 19 mpg in the Euroleague and shooting 47 percent from three.

Positives: The lithe 7-footer often gets compared to Dirk Nowitzki because of his versatility, ball-handling skills and his silky-smooth jumper. He likes to play out on the perimeter and can really do it all from out there. He's also picked up the rep as a very solid defender. While he's not quite the athlete that Nowitzki is, he's more athletic that it appears at first glance.

Negatives: Scouts aren't totally clear what position he'll play in the pros. Is he quick enough to guard threes? Is he strong enough and aggressive enough to guard fours? Bargnani needs to gain weight and strength. His low-post game is pretty underdeveloped and he avoids contact.

Scouts Inc. evaluation: Bargnani, one of the more talented big men in this year's draft, has been compared to Dirk Nowitzki because of his ability to put the ball on the floor and also make deep shots. He is very skilled and can knock down the NBA 3-point shot very consistently. However, he does not have the ability to raise up and shoot over defenders like Nowitzki does.

Bargnani has shown the ability to rebound against good competition in Europe and has gotten a lot of time at a young age, which doesn't always happen for such a young prospect. His organization and coaches have a lot of faith in him to play in important games, as Benetton is one of the premier teams in not only the Italian league, but the Euroleague as well.

Bargnani has a good face-up game and is a good passer. He has the ability to create offense off of face-ups in the mid post. He uses both hands and is a matchup problem for slower big men because he can take them off the dribble on pick-and-pops and isolations.

He is a very skilled player and will be a very good big man in the NBA. But the comparisons to Nowitzki are a little premature. A better comparison at this stage might be to Troy Murphy. Nevertheless, expect Bargnani to be one of the top five players selected in the draft.

Summary: He's tall and athletic, can play multiple positions, and unlike many of the European Nowitzki pretenders, he has experience. After getting off to a slow start, he's really turned it on of late against top Euroleague talent and is averaging 16 ppg over his last four. Every international NBA scout I've talked to continues to claim that Bargnani is the real deal. He's a likely Top 5 pick in the draft.

 

Morrison

Draft Projection: Top 10

Similarities: Larry Bird or Wally Szczerbiak?

Notes: Morrison has declared for the 2006 NBA draft and hired an agent, ending his college eligibility.. Like every white player who can hit a jump shot, he is typically compared to Larry Bird. Morrison struggles with diabetes. Several times he's had to take insulin shots during games. Other players have gone on to have successful careers with the disease, but it's certainly a big question mark if you're thinking about handing him a three-year guaranteed contract.

Positives: His confidence in himself and his game is palpable. His ability to consistently make tough shots with a hand in his face might be his most appealing aspect. He's crafty and finds a way to get his shot. He's tireless and constantly in motion. His 3-point shot has really improved this year. His knowledge of the game, his passing ability, his silky-smooth jumper and his fierce competitiveness all are Bird-esque.

Negatives: He has average (at best) athleticism, heavy legs, isn't a great rebounder, struggles to defend quick, athletic players, He is a historically poor 3-point shooting (31 percent last season) though he improved greatly this year. His struggle with diabetes scares some scouts.

Scouts Inc. evaluation: Morrison is a pure scorer who can put points on the board in a lot of different ways. He is excellent at attacking the basket one-on-one with his length and is fearless finishing around the rim. He is very good at digging the baseline going left and rising up for the jumper. He has a very high release point on his jumper and never has a problem getting it off. He loves to use the spin move to go to his jumper when he gets deep in the paint. He is very cagey and will use head fakes and pump fakes to get his defender off the floor and draw fouls.

Excellent catch-and-shoot player with a very quick release. Although Morrison does not move with speed, he knows how to move without the ball, play off defenders and get open for shots. One problem he had in college was that he comes to the ball way too much and gets upset sometimes when his teammates do not hit him when he is open. He can post up and play with his back to the basket. Has a jump hook middle and turnaround jumper in the post. Morrison can handle and pass. He has very good vision and with his height he sees over people to make the appropriate play.

Defense will be the real question for Morrison in the NBA. He must improve his feet and lateral quickness to guard at his position. He understands how to guard his man in college -- how much space to give depending on his speed and has good length to use defending. However, in the NBA he will be facing tremendous scorers at the wing position, and he must be able to guard them on the perimeter. He is a good rebounder and is not afraid of contact on box-outs inside. Will mix it up on the glass.

Morrison is an old-school player and a real competitor. Although he is not a big-time athlete, he is deceptively quick and is really tough. He's not afraid of anyone and will not back down. He has all the tricks -- he will hold, grab or push off to get an edge; he will do whatever it takes to win. Morrison may not be every GM's cup of tea, but teams better be careful if they pass on him. He has been a scorer his whole career, and nothing will change in the NBA. If he is on the right team, with the right coach, he will have an excellent career in the league. Look for him to go no lower than No. 5 in the 2006 draft.

Summary: Morrison had a better tournament than Redick did -- but his stock also suffered a bit of a setback after Gonzaga blew it against UCLA. Morrison is a well known commodity among NBA scouts. They know his strengths and weaknesses. What Gonzaga's loss did was scrape away some of that mystique that was artificially inflating his stock. Had Morrison led Gonzaga to an NCAA title, it would've been tough for GMs to justify not taking him No. 1. Now that's not so hard. Morrison is human too -- and for the first time in several months, NBA scouts are acknowledging that again. Morrison is a very good, but not great, NBA prospect. That realization will likely cost him a few spots in the draft unless a team like the Sonics or Blazers gets the No. 1 pick.

 

Roy

Draft Projection: Top 10

Positives: Good combination of athleticism, skill and defensive intensity. Nice NBA body. A slasher who likes to put the ball on the floor and get to the hole. Good ball-handling skills for a player his size. Knows how to create shots for himself and his teammates. Good rebounder for a guard.

Negatives: Has the rap as an inconsistent shooter, especially from long-distance, though he seems to have improved his 3-point shooting dramatically this season. A bit of a tweener, he's more comfortable playing a point forward position.

Scouts Inc. evaluation:
Roy may have been the most complete player in college basketball last season. He has great height, length and athleticism for the guard position. He did not play the point for Washington, but that may be his best position at the next level. Roy has excellent quickness, and is wiry strong. .

He is an excellent one-on-one player who can take his man off the dribble and get to the rim. He has a very good crossover and hesitation dribbles that help him create penetration. Roy is very crafty around the rim and is able to finish with either hand. He is an excellent passer and unselfish with the ball. If a man is open, he will find him. He knows how to play with and without the ball. He is constantly moving without the ball and coming off screens. He is a very good catch-and-shoot player. He knows how to set his man up and read the defender coming off screens. He makes the correct read almost all the time. When he comes off the screens, he has excellent range on his jumper. In addition, Roy is very comfortable using pick and rolls, whether it be side or middle picks. He comes off the picks with a little bounce in his step, which keeps defenders on their heels, and is very alert to make good reads. He loved to post up in college. Was very comfortable going into the low block and playing with his back to the basket. Excellent vision and passing skills out of the post..

Defensively, Roy excels with his long arms and active hands. He is a cagey defender and will be a big steal guy at the next level. He has been taught very well in college, and he understands the important defensive concepts. There is no doubt he will be able to defend his position at a high level in the NBA. Roy also is an excellent rebounder. He averaged 5.7 rpg in his senior year. It is an added bonus to have a guard who can not only defend but come back and get you rebounds at the pro level..

This kid will be a lottery pick because he has no major flaws in his game. He will be ready in his rookie year to contribute, because his game is so complete. Look for him to go in the first 5-7 picks.

Summary: After a slow start, Roy's been on fire the last two months of the season. He continued his hot streak into the tournament with two stellar games for Washington where Roy did just about everything you could ask in a player. He controlled the tempo of the game, scored both inside and outside and played great defense. Roy is not the most exciting player in the draft. He lacks the jaw-dropping athleticism or the flair for the dramatic that some of the other top prospects possess. But is there a more complete guard in the draft? Villanova's Randy Foye is the only other player who could really be in the conversation. Based on the feedback we've gotten from NBA teams over the past few weeks, we've moved him past Arkansas' Ronnie Brewer on our boards and currently have him ranked as the seventh-best prospect in the draft. Considering that Roy began the season as a second rounder, that's amazing. If he can pull an upset over Connecticut this weekend, we may have to move him up another spot or two.

 

Gay

Draft Projection: Top 10

Notes: Gay announced on April 17th that he'll declare for the NBA draft and not hire an agent, ending his college eligibility. Gay was solid, but certainly not dominant, for Team USA at the Under 21s. Gay averaged 10.5 ppg and 5.5 rpg in just 15 mpg for Team USA.

Positives: Gay has great size for a small forward. He is an excellent athlete with serious hops and a freakishly long wingspan. He's also deceptively strong. He does just about everything well. He can slash to the basket, pull up for the mid-range jumper, and even hit the NBA 3-pointer. Scouts also claim he's a great kid with a tireless work ethic.

Negatives: Assertiveness is the biggest issue. Gay doesn't realize how good he really is and rarely tries to take over games. When he does, the results can be spectacular (see his game vs. Arkansas). When he doesn't, he can disappear. Gay appears to be reluctant to put the ball on the floor. His jump shot is inconsistent. He always hesitates when he passes. He doesn't move all that well without the ball and spends way too much time on the perimeter for someone his size. He seems to lose his confidence when he doesn't get it going early.

Summary: By tournament time, NBA scouts expect to see flashes of greatness from Top 5 prospects. Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah and LaMarcus Aldridge all delivered at times. Gay? Not so much. He did have 20 points against George Mason in a losing effort in the Elite Eight. But for the most part, scouts didn't see anything over the past four games to convince them that Gay was a potential No. 1 pick. He grabbed some boards, hit a few jumpers and made a few plays. But he was rarely the best player on his team, let alone the floor. He has the tools. But he's still has a long way to go before he figures out how to use them. That won't stop a NBA team from taking him in the lottery. But for now (until NBA team workouts that is) Gay has slipped out of contention for the No. 1 pick in the draft.

 

Foye

Draft Projection: Lottery

Positives: Foye is aggressive, gritty and very athletic -- a nice combination in any guard. He's a warrior with great competitive instincts. His shot has improved dramatically over his four years at Villanova and he possesses enough ball-handling skills to play point guard in the pros. To top it off, scouts claim he's one of the best perimeter defenders in the country.

Negatives: Foye is not a pure point guard meaning that some scouts wonder if he'll be able to make the transition. It also means he's undersized to play the two full time in the pros if he can't. Scouts believe he's a little closer to 6-foot-3 than the 6-foot-4 he's listed at. Poor shot selection and turnovers have plagued him in the past, though he seems to have overcome that his senior year.

Summary: It's tough to fault Foye for Villanova's demise in the NCAA tournament. He did everything for Villanova the past four games. He scored, he defended and at times, he ran the team as a point guard. His 3-point shot has tapered off at a fairly alarming rate toward the end of the season, but for the most part NBA scouts believe he's a good enough shooter. He's still trying to convince scouts that he's a point guard at the next level, but there are enough NBA scouts and executives convinced that he's a basketball player that it's still pretty likely he'll end up in the Top 10 on draft night.

 

Brewer

Draft Projection: Lottery

Similarities: Julius Hodge

Notes: Brewer declared for the 2006 NBA Draft on April 27th. He had not hired an agent allowing him to retain his college eligibility.

Positives: Some scouts believe that Brewer, at 6-foot-7, has the tools to be at least a part-time point guard in the pros. That makes him an incredibly sexy prospect. His athleticism, long arms and ball-handling skills have drawn comparisons to Marquis Daniels and John Salmons. However, Brewer plays with an aggressiveness that often surpasses what Daniels or Salmons did at the collegiate level. He is an excellent defender who uses his long arms to swipe away passes in the lane.

Negatives: Brewer's outside jumper needs a lot of work. He improved his 3-point shooting percentage to a respectable 39 percent last season, but he slipped to 33 percent this seasonseason. A shot coach probably isn't going to help Brewer. He broke his right arm as a child and can't completely extend it.

Scouts Inc. evaluation:Brewer is long, athletic and a very versatile wing player. One or the most explosive players in college, Brewer has the ability to take over games with his athleticism and a motor that never stops. He can handle the basketball and be a secondary ball-handler if needed. He is a good passer, which allowed him to play a lot of point guard last season. Compares favorably with Andre Iguodala with his high energy level. Brewer can get after people on defense. He tries to control the game on both ends of the floor, which you don't see in a lot of college players these days.

He is very good in pick-and-rolls. His length helps, and his basketball IQ allows him to make good decisions. He can score coming off the screen or hit the big men on rolls or pops. He also can find open shooters when blitzed on pick-and-rolls. In addition, his athletic ability and length will make him an effective post up wing.

His Achilles' heel is his shooting. His stroke is a little bit broken. That said, he has confidence in his shot and at times can make them. Brewer needs a lot of work in this area at the next level. He is a great kid and a very hard worker. When he gets with a team and starts taking 500 shots a day in practice, he will slowly but surely improve his stroke.

Look for him to be a top-10 pick.

Summary: Brewer's stock is still a little volatile, but few believe it will cause him to slip past the mid-first round. The detractors say he could be the second coming of Jeryl Sasser, which is pretty bad. But his fans say he's a much better offensive player that Sasser and has a higher basketball IQ. They see him as a better version of Julius Hodge, John Salmons or Marquis Daniels.

 

Sheldon Williams

Draft Projection: Lottery

Notes: Williams anchored the World University Games squad this summer, averaging 14.9 ppg and 9.3 rpg.

Positives: One of the best rebounders and shot blockers in college basketball. A beast in the paint. A solid scorer with his back to the basket. Great strength and, despite his bulk, is actually pretty explosive. "He doesn't do anything that wows you," one scout said. "But he's very solid, he crashes the glass and he can be real intimidating in the paint. There aren't many NBA teams that don't need that. I see him as a Carlos Boozer-type player in the league. That's a good thing."

Negatives: He doesn't have much of a face-the-basket game right now. Doesn't score as much as his talent would suggest, though that's changed a little bit at the start of this season. Scouts wish Williams was another inch or two taller.

Summary: Although he'll probably never be an 18-ppg player in the league, he could be a 10 rebound, 2.5 blocks per night type power forward. Given the dearth of bigs in the draft, that may be enough. He's added a little more to his offensive repertoire and if he measures out to be a legitimate 6-foot-9 (scouts have their doubts), he could be a top 10 pick.