Morgan Extends!!!

I am commenting in the context of a "fan" discussion on a message board in which case all we are doing is guessing how good a player will perform over the next several years. Morgan might play 16 games, have 6 sacks, 3 interceptions, 10 PD's and 145 tackles........or he might play 10 games, have 1 sack, 0 interceptions, 3 PD's and 70 tackles. Where you fall in that range is as much personality (half full vs. half empty) as it is x's and o'x knowledge, and imho having a greater or lesser level of football expertise does not validate or invalidate a guess on how well a player will perform. Morgan's contract was not about what he has done in the past, he was paid based on how the team feels he will produce this year and beyond.

Obviously a front office deciding who to pay and how much to pay them relies heavily on "football knowledge", as well as other character issues, health issues, etc. The careers of guys like Hurney rise and fall based on the decisions of who to pay and how much to pay them. I think most of Hurney's peers would argue that over the last few years he has been one of the best in the NFL. If we end up back in the big game, or even back to the NFC Championsip game for the 2nd time in 3 years then it will be difficult to argue against the job he's doing. If we miss the playoffs again, then it will begin to point in the direction that his recent personnel decisions were poor ones and his job will be on the line. I remain in the 1/2 full column.

 

And here is another one of your many problems. While no one can predict the future with any certainty, it is not at all impossible to project "reasonable expectations." If contract sizes were dependent upon predicting the future specifically, anyone could get any contract of any size since no one has a crystal ball. Instead you have to understand at some point that the NFL, just like any other business, makes decisions on employment and compensation based on reasonable expectations of return based on recent history. Morgan's recent history is pretty bad. He's been average or below average in every single year of his career except last season, which was pretty good. He has never played more than 12 games in a single season, and there is legitimate concern that his next concussion could mean the end of his career. It is also widely accepted that Morgan is a liability in pass coverage, and therefore has very limited utility on third downs. It is less widely accepted but still a general consensus that Morgan is not a gap-filling MLB. He doesn't stuff running plays for the most part, he just makes tackles downfield. These are not things that lead you to pay a guy a ton of money.

Bull$#!+. This is the coward's defense. People who can't actually defend their position always try to hide behind the proposition that "no one knows what will happen." Well no one does know what will happen, either on the field or in the stock market or whatever, but does that mean you let your five year old pick company names out of the business pages and treat that equally with the learned opinion of your stock-broker? Obviously not. The only time people say opinions are equal is when they already know that theirs are inferior.

Have you never heard the expression "[size=-1]The best predictor of future performance is past performance[/size][size=-1]"?[/size]

Wrong. Around the time of our Super Bowl appearance, columnists and colleagues were talking about Hurney being one of the better executives around. With the rash of massive contracts since then, you're not hearing any positive buzz at all, and there have been increasing rumblings that the Panthers are consistently overpaying for players.

As I said, we're set up to be very competitive over the next two seasons, but there will be trouble after that. Many, many teams have tried this strategy of playing for "now" and worrying about "later" when it actually gets here. The Patriots never have, but I suppose you could argue that Tampa did. Unfortunately most teams that try it don't end up succeeding, yet all of them pay the price in salary cap implications. Tennessee tried something similar several years back, and as a result, they had to gut their team last season and this year. But sure, if we win the Super Bowl then the subsequent losing seasons will be worth it, that's just a hell of a gamble to take.

Here's another thing you and others simply have to learn. You must always differentiate between hopes and reality. I hope the Panthers win every game. I hope that Dan Morgan has 150 tackles and forces 10 fumbles. I hope that we win the Super Bowl. But I don't let my hopes get in the way of my rational evaluation. It's fine to be optimistic, but only as long as you're realistic as well.

 

Now that's a statement I can actually agree with you on.

 

This is an interesting statement that I'd love to see backed up by a link to the article written for a national audience (not Charlotte.com). A couple of links to show a trend would be nice.

 

"Although Carolina overpaid to get him, cornerback Ken Lucas gives the secondary a chance to be special."

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=cr-panthers05preview&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

 

agreed cuz i can remember at the time of signing lucas and whale that hurney was getting a lot of poistive pub from the national media

 

We may have overpaid this year, for at least two guys. Well, three counting Morgan (which I was definitely not in favor of b/c of his concussions).

Big if, but if Lucas plays up to his contract and along w/Gamble/Manning give us a shut down secondary, I won't feel he's overpaid. I'll probably just be loving it.

We probably did overpay Wahle but as Henning said somewhere lately (paraphrased), they knew they were gonna have to pay someone to help the OL and wanted to make sure they paid someone who had top shelf talent. They didn't think any of the OT's out there fit the description. If the OL shines this year it takes a lot of the sting out of it. And if that guy is what they say he is character and work ethic-wise he'll pay dividends we won't see from him on the field... but may see later on in younger guys who learn by his example.

 

10 games, 62 tackles, 3 sacks, 0 interceptions, and 2 PDs. Granted, it's possible he might play some more and increase those totals, but can I say I told you so at this point or do I have to keep waiting? I mean after all, Morgan might actually be healthy and dominate next year, just like Beyonce Knowles might break down my door and rape me after I finish posting this.

 

It's only rape if you resist.

 

She didn't show up.