Morgan Extends!!!

i'm not doubting his knowledge...anyone who is that much forthright-ful-ness (thats definitely not a word and I'm rollin with it) must have some chops. Just don't carry that elitist attitude so hard, it just makes everyone else just wanna argue with him, and when that happens, the subject isnt football anymore, and thats what annoys the shit outta me.

Although, on a side note, I will say that as i've gotten deep other subjects, at times it seems like the more you know, the less you know. It is refreshing, at times, what insightful ideas the naive mind can shed on a subject.

 

forthrighteousness?

Agreed, to a point, on both ideas. I think that I would know 10x what I do now, if I'd dedicated myself to teaching others about it in a light that comes from that perspective.
Plus, his competitive nature means that when he and I disagree, there's a lot of tension. It sucks, because most times I enjoy discourse with people I feel are my peers (and generally, Collin doesn't accept as his), and don't really enjoy having to go to the mat for every ounce of an opinion when it's never all that far off where he is.

But all that aside, I'm wondering why the hell we're talking about all this.

 

good point. What are the odds Morgan gets released before his 2nd roster bonus is due in March of 2007?

 

He deserves Dan Morgan money!

Seriously though, most of the debate on this Board is opinion based and while x's and o's football knowledge is respected...at least by me...issues like is Dan Morgan worth $5 mil a year or $2 mil a year begins to remove itself from the "football knowledge" argument and moves more towards simple old fashioned opinion. Just my two cents, its all good. I enjoy reading the opinions on this Board and I certainly have never given any thought to what others think of my opinions. For me its not about that, its about discussion of the team I have been traveling from Raleigh to watch since 1995.....and I love it!

 

fuck if I know. I think the odds aren't terribly great for him, medically, 32 games from now.

 

If this were true, Marty Hurney wouldn't have a job (although at this point, maybe he shouldn't have one anyway).


And as for the roster bonus, it's unlikely we would release Morgan prior to March '07 because of the cap-killing implications. When you cut a player, the remainder of their roster bonus accelerates, meaning all of it counts against the next cap if done before June 1st, or half now and half later if after June 1st. Unless I'm screwing up my math somewhere, we'll have $3.6 mil of the signing bonus left to pay after 2006, along with $3.2 million of the roster bonus. That would mean taking an immediate hit of $6.8 million in dead cap. It really wouldn't make sense at that point unless he's just physically unable to play, because it wouldn't cost us that much extra to keep him around an additional year, even factoring in the last $2 mil bonus. Instead the most likely scenario has us cutting or restructuring him after June 1st in 2009, when we can split the remaining $3.8 million dead cap hit over '09 and '10. That's a good point to do it because his base salary escalates to $4.25 mil in addition to the bonus money. After June 1st in 2008 would also be an option since his base goes from $750k in '07 to $2.85 mil in '08, but that would mean a dead cap hit of $6.3 million.


In case you're wondering, under the '09 axe scenario, Morgan's contract would play out like this:

2005: $1.74 mil
2006: $2.55 mil
2007: $3.25 mil
2008: $5.35 mil
2009: $3.8 mil (while not playing for us, or else added on to whatever his re-structured contract looks like)

Those numbers aren't horrific, but they're also the best case scenario. Cutting him any sooner makes the dead cap hit much uglier, while keeping him any longer gets ugliest of all due to the high base salaries in the final two seasons.

 

The $500,000 roster bonus is applied only in years he's on the roster and not at all the first year so if cut in March of 2009 his total roster bonus (which would already be paid for the previous years) would be $1.5m.

 

Unless of course you are thinking of the second two signing bonuses (which in hindsight I think you are) than you are correct (or at least close). But you look to be missing the remaining of his bonus from his rookie contract nor do you assume he'll hit any amount of his incentive (remember that these can be team incentives not just player ones...we just don't know the flavor).

 

whether he's worth $2 mil or $5 mil is opinion, sure. But there's a lot of space between those two ideals, which does blur the line over whether there's viable opinion at those ranges.

Actually, my feelings on the subject are right in between that - around $3.5 mil. While I'm not one who usually complains about the cost of athletes, I do have to volunteer that I wasn't happy with the market value of the two elite FAs we signed, so take that for what it's worth, too. It's possible that my ideals of what a player is worth (which was dead on for guys like Jenkins, for instance, within $1.5 million over the life of the contract) is becoming a little more obsolete.

But yeah, the risk is still there. Morgan's contract will ensure, for the most part, that he retire a Panther. The problem is, for one, I don't think that I was worried about him being here for that long, and two, that he probably won't last that long. "Retiring a Panther" might be more of a Jason Peter thing in this case than a ...hmmm. Well, there isn't a good example of a Panther retiring.

 

I'm holding out hope he gives us a Kevin Greene level of performance until the end (retirement) followed by a short stint as a professional wrestler... :imagestor