Google and Apple

Interesting forecast. Makes sense on the surface.

I still kick myself for not buying Google when they IPO'd. From 63 to ~700 in 3 yrs.

http://www.cnet.com/8301-13506_1-9808297-17.html?tag=head

 

I don't buy that story completely, but I am kicking myself for buying some other stuff 3 months ago instead of AAPL and GOOG...$40k woulda been $70-80k... I can't believe GOOG will keep up this pace, but I said that at 400 too. AAPL is a fad-ish company and I worry about a skyrocketing valuation for them - I'd sell out of that one now.

 

NBC is yanking their content from Itunes which was 40% of their video content.. Somebody else who I can't name at the moment already did. Apple is going to have a reality check.

 

Point taken, but "fad-ish" can also equal clever and innovative design. The design house is exactly what Google does not have or do, and Apple is one of the best in the business. Porting a fadish and popular device on the Google open-source backbone is a great business, both for techies and everyday users, as long as the other components of delivery and service are there.

I guarantee you, if I can install my own OS on my smartphone, install exactly the apps I want, and only that, and then be charged for exactly the minutes I used, without contract, there is no doubt in my mind I will be using that service. I think I am not alone. And that is the model they are theoretically shooting for.

 

For that you will spend $500 on a phone (no one other than iPhone crazy people spend that). And don't kid yourself, Google is a master of design just as Apple is - they don't need Apple, but they may want Apple to avoid making enemies of everyone (taking on the whole telco industry and Microsoft is likely enough).

 

The current version 1.0 of the iPhone is not going to be the only product for sale at the time of launch, going by the article's forecast. I disagree about the attitude of fear of pissing off Apple as a motivator and also that Google is a master of design, but it doesn't really matter. I give both stocks a buy, even at their price.

 

you capitalist pig you

 

I never kick myself for that shit. The valuations are still high, and there are plenty of other solid investments to make.

Plus, my goals are more tortoise than hair. Additionally, I'd rather risk capital like that on my own ventures.

 

I understand your concern and I agree with it, up to a point. In the past 3 years, Google has become one of those solid 10yr individual investments, now that it is sitting at its current price point (and arguably even back at 400). I had a feeling about it, but I was being conservative. I kick myself for not trusting my feeling. I am invested through a couple of mutual funds but not in the way I would like to be.

I also ride the tortoise but the occasional homerun is not a bad thing. I have less confidence in Apple due simply for the need to design, manufacture, and deliver physical product, relative to Google's overhead (or lack thereof). But again, my fears are not seemingly valid relative to Apple's 5yr performance.

 

Google has quite a bit of overhead...those datacenters don't build themselves. And 15,000 employees doing dev work aren't free either. Neither are the free gourmet meals and the other lavish perks.