Good Article on Nelson, Hickson, Lawson, Ellington, Green & Draft status

The Fayetteville Observer nailed it, I think.

http://www.fayobserver.com/article?id=295046

Ready for the NBA?

By Dan Wiederer
Staff writer

Attention Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green. Listen up for a second, J.J. Hickson and DeMarcus Nelson. You may have jumped into the pool for this year’s NBA draft, hoping to hear your name called June 26 from the podium at Madison Square Garden.

But here’s what front office personnel from around the NBA want you to know. While that childhood dream of yours seems to be so close right now, seemingly right within reach, it’s actually a lot further away than you ever could imagine.

Think for a second about all those who have gone before you. Sure, you can look at your schools’ media guides and see the names of Antawn Jamison and Jerry Stackhouse; Carlos Boozer and Elton Brand.
But for every one of them, there are players such as Kris Lang and Jawad Williams; Julius Hodge and Anthony Grundy; Chris Carrawell and Josh McRoberts.

Translation: This mountain you think you’re about to scale is much, much steeper than it looks.
“The talent level in the NBA is mind-blowing,” said one NBA scout just last week. “And yet there’s no real way to explain that to college players. Even players at a program like Carolina, where their NBA guys constantly come back to campus, they still don’t quite understand how big of a leap it is they’re trying to take.

“It’s a sad thing. They think to themselves, ‘Hey man, I’m in the ACC. It’s competitive every night.’ Well you know what? A lot of the guys you’re playing against in the ACC are never going to sniff the NBA.”
And so…

The NBA’s Pre-Draft Camp starts today at Disney’s Wide World of Sports Complex in Orlando. For players such as Lawson, Ellington, Green, Hickson and Nelson, it provides an opportunity to leave a lasting impression on NBA front office personnel.

For those who care enough to pay attention to the reviews, it will also provide a heavy dose of reality, a forum where general managers and head coaches and directors of scouting will frown and shake their heads and spew criticism as if they were Simon Cowell in the 10th hour of an “American Idol” audition.

But they’re simply being honest, only trying to help. So it would be wise for these NBA hopefuls to open their eyes and ears.
Yet inevitably, players will overrate their abilities.

TY LAWSON, NORTH CAROLINA
Position: Point guard
Height: 5-foot-11
Weight: 195 pounds

What NBA teams like: His blazing quickness, court vision and ability to make plays on the break.
What scares them: His shooting touch, his height, that ankle injury that cost him six games last season and that bumpy nine-point, two-assist, three-turnover performance at the Final Four.

Mock draft status: 20th to Denver (ESPN.com); not a first-rounder (NBAdraft.net, Sporting News, NBAmock.com)

Worth considering: There are already three marquee point guards (Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and D.J. Augustin) who have established themselves as more NBA-ready than Lawson. While it’s not likely to happen, Lawson’s return to UNC might be the most beneficial long-term decision he could make from a basketball perspective.
“He’d definitely benefit from more instruction,” said one NBA scout. “It’s not like if he goes back now there will be no scorers for him to throw the ball to. I mean, please. That’s a great team with a lot of scoring options and he knows he’s going to be able to look good with a large number of assists every night.”


WAYNE ELLINGTON, NORTH CAROLINA
Position: Shooting guard
Height: 6-4
Weight: 200
What NBA teams like: His pure shooting stroke and explosive scoring potential. His ability to add a mid-range game to his 3-point shooting has been impressive.

What scares them: He doesn’t get to the rim enough and is still a long, long way from being a finished product. His lateral quickness and wavering focus make him a defensive liability at times.

Mock draft status: 28th to Memphis (NBAdraft.net); not a first-rounder (ESPN.com, Sporting News, NBAmock.com)

Worth considering: One NBA scout thinks Ellington can develop into a more explosive Hubert Davis. That said, the scout believes Davis was more NBA-ready when he entered the league after four years at Carolina instead of just two.

“You’ll take Ellington because you like some of his characteristics, both athletic and in mental makeup. But at the same time, he’s not a player you’re taking with the belief that ‘Hey he’s going to help me next year,’” the scout said.

J.J. HICKSON, N.C. State
Position: Power forward
Height: 6-9
Weight: 240

What NBA teams like: His strength and power in the paint. Has good mobility and even better physical sturdiness.

What scares them: He averaged only 12.5 points per game in ACC play, not even in the top 20 of the conference. He doesn’t have a wide array of moves on the low block and isn’t a consistent defensive presence.

Mock draft status: 25th to Houston (ESPN.com); 28th to Memphis (Sporting News); 29th to Detroit (NBAMock.com); not a first-rounder (NBAdraft.net)

Worth considering: State’s last first-round draft pick, Cedric Simmons in 2006, hasn’t made much of a splash in the NBA. Fair or not, teams have considered that.

They’ll also take into account the Wolfpack’s 15-16 record and last-place ACC finish.

“I don’t think Hickson is a definite successful NBA player,” an NBA scout said. “He has an NBA body but his team did not have a great deal of success. And there are some teams that weigh that more heavily than others. Some teams that will look at his particular characteristics, what they see on tape and the file they have on him from the season. But there are other people who will say, ‘Wait a minute, if this guy is that good, why wasn’t his team any better?’ I think there’s some merit to that.”

DeMARCUS NELSON, Duke
Position: Shooting guard
Height: 6-4
Weight: 200

What NBA teams like: He has great athleticism and an attacking nature. He’s fundamentally sound and a terrific defender.

What scares them: He doesn’t have a great jump shot, an obvious red flag for a guy who will have to play shooting guard in the NBA.

Mock draft status: Not a first-rounder (ESPN.com, NBAdraft.net, Sporting News, NBAmock.com)

Worth considering: Nelson, figured to be a late-second round pick, is probably better off going undrafted next month. That way, in free agency he and his agent can hand-pick the team that will give him the best chance of making the roster instead of being at the mercy of the franchise that drafts him.

“There are guys every year that don’t fit the ‘blueprint’ who make the NBA. But for a guy like Nelson, it has to be right time, right team, right situation,” the NBA scout said.
“Nelson’s a good player, he’s definitely in the mix and he’ll likely be playing on an NBA summer league team. That doesn’t change that much if he’s taken 55th or if he doesn’t get drafted at all.”

DANNY GREEN, NORTH CAROLINA
Position: Shooting guard/small forward
Height: 6-6
Weight: 210

What NBA teams like: He can do a little bit of everything and has eye-opening athleticism.

What scares them: Inconsistency. That 18-point, eight-rebound, seven-block explosion in an ACC-championship clinching win at Duke was impressive. But what the heck happened in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament when Green shot 4-for-14 and scored only 10 of his team’s 221 points?

Mock draft status: Not a first-rounder (ESPN.com, NBAdraft.net, Sporting News, NBAmock.com)

Worth considering: If Green plays his cards right, testing the waters is the smartest thing he could do.

“There haven’t been a lot of anonymous quotes from scouts floating around the papers about him the way there have been about other players,” the NBA scout said. “Danny Green doesn’t have that kind of feedback.

“Even if he gets two or three team workouts, he gets a chance to show people what he’s got and they say ‘We like you, but these are the shortcomings in your game and this is what we need you to work on in order to be a better NBA prospect a year from now.’
“I understand what he’s doing, but I also feel like he’d be making a big mistake if he didn’t pull out and head back to school.”