Buffalo

having Fletcher definately helps, though I did feel like their weakness wasn't at MLB even if Cowart was gone. Still, he's more able in this type scheme than in the C2. The problem right now is that Flowers should be up to speed and isn't even a projected starter. He could be an adequate left end and couldn't hang that great at RE. This team had an OK task of replacing Bruce Smith, but they always had Hanson across from him. Now that they don't...

Receivers? I feel like Charles Johnson might emerge some there, mostly because of Bledsoe. Riemersma and Centers will probably see as many or more balls.

 

I foresee a big year for Bledsoe and Moulds. Teams will have to pay too much attention to Centers and Riemersma as well as Price and Johnson to concentrate on him too much.

 

IMO there is no way that Buffalo makes the playoffs. They won't win their division - that should be Miami or New England. They aren't better than a lot of teams in the AFC. I would say this...
AFC East - Miami
AFC North - Pittsburgh
AFC West - Denver
AFC South - Indy

Wildcard contenders: Baltimore, Tennessee, Oakland, NY Jets, New England

Wildcard probables: New England and Oakland

 

Actually, I'd say Mort's view, and mine, is that we have less than average talent.

Everyone agrees that Bellicheck’s coaching got a lot more out of his players than their combined talent. And that’s true. But the cubbords were not as barren as they were here. They did have Milloy and Law in the secondary, perrenial Pro Bowlers. McGinnest and Phifer had a bit more juice in their creaky bodies than anyone gave them credit for. Add in rookie first round pick Richard Seymour, who was was very impressive in the AFC Championship game, and there you have 5 playmakers on defense. That’s par in the NFL. We had Rucker who was a consistent difference maker. If 5 is average, 1 is pretty bad.
If we are 8-8, John Fox should be coach of the year.

 

>>Actually, I'd say Mort's view, and mine, is that we have less than average talent.

exactly. Hardly any proven talent at all.

 

Should be a good solid year to judge that coaching matters.... still even at the professional level...

 

The key word here is "proven." I think it is unfair to simply state we have less than average talent. We have talent, we just need to develop it. By my definition, talent is the natural raw ability to perform a funtion, and skill is the realized knowledge and ability to perform that function. By that definition, we have the talent to be a good team, we just do not have the skills yet to reach that potential. So it is not unreasonable that if Fox & co. can get the most out of the players that it could surprise many. So if I had to put numbers to it, I would say we have the talent for a 10 win season, but the skills of a 6 win year.


Just for grins, below is a list of expected starters, and where I see their level.

Offense

QB
- Weinke - Could still go either way, most likely will be average.

RB
- Smith - Average (although the expectation/hope is Foster will take over at some point and be above average)

FB
- Hoover - Below Average (not bad, but more of a receiver than blocker, so should be better in this offense as a H-back)

WR
- Moose - Above Average
- Byrd - Below Average (more of a 3rd receiver than #2...same goes for Smith -> this also assumes Jeffers does not come back well)

TE
- Walls - Above Average (assuming he is recovered, but next year could be average or below if Walls retires)

OL
- Stuesse - Above Average
- Nesbit - Average
- Mitchell - Above Average
- Donnelly - Average (right now Jordan and James would be below average)
- Terry - Average


Defense

DL
- Rucker - Above Average
- Jenkins - should be at least average (has talent to develop into above average)
- Gilbert - Average (could be gone next year, so will need upgrading)
- Peppers - should be above average next year, but average this one.

LB
- Morgan - Above Average
- Fields - Average
- Navies/Witherspoon - Average (Witherspoon may take a year)

CB
- Cousins - Below Average - would be nickel back on most teams
- Jenkins/Howard/etc. - Below Average - nickel backs at best (however, Wesley will hopefully develop into at least average)

S
- Grant - Average (should be above average next year)
- Minter - Above Average

Overall, Special Teams are above average in all aspects.

So, the way I see it, we only have 4 projected starters that are below average. That should make us at worst an average team. But since you can't project what effect injuries, attitude, and a new coaching philosophy will have, our season can go either way. I tend to expect a 6-8 win season, primarily because it will take the players some time to adjust to the new system, also there is a large number of young inexperienced players expected to play key roles, but I do expect we will be much tougher than many people expect.

 

"Raw talent" is potential. Talent is that potential realized. I agree we have young players with raw ability. But right now, Moose is the only real confirmed talent, and he had an off year last year. Walls you can throw in there still I guess, even though he's slipped, he's was still more of a threat than 75% of the tight ends in the league lst year. But putting him back together again year after year is a challenge.

The real problem though is defensive talent. We've got some solid starters, like Minter, but not any real impact players. Rucker is the closest thing to being both a consistent player and a playmaker. We got Morgan, Peppers, Jenkins all these guys who could be, even Gilbert still has the athleticism, but we haven't seen any production yet.

Impact players make teams good, and even average teams have a few more than we do.

To get to 8-8, let alone 10-6, we would have to develop the potential fast. If that happens, Fox should get coach of the year.

 

Although our definitions of "talent" differ, we are basically agreeing on the state of the team. They have a nucleus of solid players with Moose, Rucker, and Minter, and there are also several young players who could/should make a significant impact this year or next. But right now I see this as a shakey average team. If the young players show good improvement, we should be solidly average, and with the addition of a few more impact players next year through FA and thd draft, contend for the playoffs.

Right now, what this team is lacking are playmakers. Hopefully Peppers and Morgan can fill those roles, but nothing is guaranteed with rookies and while Morgan has proven to be solid, anything else is projection. Even if both become the playmakers we hope for, I would still like at least one or two more playmakers on defense (DB and DT). Also, While I like Moose, I see him more as steady than a difference maker, so offensively we have a big need for playmakers on offense as well. Hopfully Foster will be able to fill that role, and I am really starting to warm toward the idea of getting a top WR in the draft. Someone such as Roy Williams would fill the bill nicely.

Overall, we should not see another 1-15 season, but anything more than 6-8 wins would be overachieving. I'm looking at next year as the season to start thinking playoffs.

 

yeah...but see where our definitions differ, that's where it kinda matters. Potential doesn't win ball games.

Even given your generous estimates for where we are, we're still not near where we should be. You're suggesting that almost every young player we have will reach his potential, and even then there are holes.