Analytics

Analytics has become everyone’s favorite buzzword. Talking heads act like the analytics are set in stone. Like they say in the stock market though past results do not indicate future performance. Everybody’s going for it on fourth down because the analytics say they should I think defenses are adapting and pretty soon it’s not going to be as profitable doing that no matter what the analytics might say about the past.


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whatever models a team used for 4th down choices should still be getting fed data from every season so it's not set in stone- the percentages you should go for it are a moving target and your going for it should be based on personnel injuries matchups and current performance in game. Since it's trendy now it'll go up then settle into the new normal just as options/RPO/Wildcat did. Remember when field goals past 50 yards were a coin toss? Now if your kicker can't do that consistently you're probably looking for a new guy every offseason.

But you're expecting NFL coaches to understand statistics and it took 20 odd years since the first papers saying PUNT LESS DUMBASSES were published so have fun.

 

Analytics have their place...but using it as the end all-be all is insanely stupid.