ACC Team Previews

From Insider.
I'll post them as they come.
First UNC
The key: Perimeter defense
Stat to know: 18.3 percent

After the Elite Eight loss to Kansas last March, four Tar Heels left Chapel Hill for the NBA, and a team that entered last season as a national title favorite has evolved into a squad riddled with question marks for the 2012-13 season. The Heels are young -- nine of the 12 players are either freshmen or sophomores -- and with big men John Henson and Tyler Zeller gone, the squad's defining strength will likely be perimeter defense.



North Carolina Tar Heels
Last season: 32-6 (14-2 ACC)
Finished: Elite Eight (lost to Kansas)
2012-13 projected starting lineup
G: Dexter Strickland (Sr.)
G: Reggie Bullock (Jr.)
F: P.J. Hairston (So.)
F: James Michael McAdoo (So.)
C: Brice Johnson (Fr.)
Both Leslie McDonald and Dexter Strickland are healthy, and they should shift the defensive balance from the interior to the backcourt. While UNC held opponents to 43.5 percent shooting inside the arc in 2012, Zeller and Henson shouldered the defensive burden and fueled UNC's block rate (14 percent). Strickland and McDonald are known for their on-ball skills, and Reggie Bullock, the only returning starter from last season, should also help keep opposing guards from penetrating the lane. "We spent the offseason working on agility drills," Bullock said. "We went old-school and used the ladder, which is a challenging drill, because we wanted to improve our footwork."

The trio will be better equipped to handle the conference's top-tier guards, an aspect lacking from last season's squad, and Bullock should be the next Tar Heel to crack the All-ACC defensive team. According to Synergy Sports Technology, opponents guarded by Bullock last season managed only 0.61 points per isolation possession (PPP); opponents guarded by Kendall Marshall and Harrison Barnes scored 0.87 and 0.78 PPP, respectively.

Expect Bullock, McDonald and Strickland to exert tremendous pressure on opponents, which should boost UNC's defensive turnover percentage. UNC had the second-best OPPP during ACC play last season, but the Tar Heels had only an 18.3 percent turnover rate. Without the luxury of two first-round NBA draft picks anchoring the paint, the Heels will have to be more aggressive on the perimeter and in passing lanes. "Other players have to rotate to help slow the ball handler down, but we will have to be more aggressive on the perimeter because of our lack of height inside," Bullock said. "The load is on the guards this year." -- Matt Giles

The flaw: Frontcourt inexperience
Stat to know: 39 percent

The frontcourt is the true question mark for coach Roy Williams' squad. James Michael McAdoo has emerged as the nation's consensus "breakout star" this season, but other than the 6-foot-9 sophomore, UNC will have to depend on a trio of untested bigs (Desmond Hubert played only 123 minutes last season, so he's still a relative unknown). McAdoo is the only returning frontcourt player who saw any meaningful playing time in 2011-12, using 39 percent of UNC's available minutes. Per Synergy Sports Technology, McAdoo was the team's sixth option a year ago, using just 8.3 percent of the team's possessions. He was somewhat efficient -- 0.86 PPP -- but his game within the arc needs to be refined, as he converted only 43.4 percent of his 2s.

An interesting parallel for McAdoo could be Kansas' Thomas Robinson; the efficiency stats for both players are somewhat similar, and Robinson's percentage of possessions used jumped from 24.2 percent (2010-11) to 30.1 percent (2011-12).

Starting alongside McAdoo will likely be either Joel James or Brice Johnson, both freshmen. Neither will be a primary option on offense, but both will be pivotal on defense, keeping McAdoo out of foul trouble while controlling the defensive glass and initiating quick outlets. James will bring a physicality that UNC will need against Miami, Duke and the ACC's other formidable frontcourts. Says Bullock, "Joel is a banger inside, and he is the type of player I haven't played with at North Carolina. He is a bit like Justin [Knox] but much bigger and stronger." Expectations should be tempered for James and Johnson, but if they, along with Hubert, can help disrupt the opponent's offensive rhythm while hitting the defensive glass (27 percent in 2011-12, tops in the conference), it'll help McAdoo fill a big void in the frontcourt. -- Matt Giles

The freshmen
The most important position on any basketball team is point guard because of how much and how often PGs handle the ball, and the Tar Heels under Williams have always had good ones. This year will be no different as Marcus Paige, the nation's top high school point guard, takes over.

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Jordan Johnson
Marcus Paige could be the next great North Carolina point guard.
Paige is advanced for his age, and he's not just a setup player, as he shot better than 40 percent from behind the arc in high school. The most important part of UNC's offense is the fast break, and Paige thrives in transition. The lefty goes end-to-end with excellent speed, with his eyes and head up, looking for finishers. In the half court, Paige can make a 3 at any time or break off a play. But that's all a luxury. The most important thing is running the team, and Williams will hand him the ball and trust him to do that immediately.

J.P. Tokoto could be the most athletic freshman in the nation regardless of position, and although he can't jump quite as high, he reminds me a little of Vince Carter athletically. He has the explosiveness, hang time and body control to finish anything at the rim. He'll be the guy looking for lobs off back-screens. Tokoto's lateral quickness will bode well when UNC puts on the pressure defensively, as he covers a lot of ground in the full-court press. He needs to work on his handling and shooting off the dribble.

Up front, Brice Johnson will block shots and Joel James will carve out space inside to rebound. Johnson has a soft touch, can shoot from 10-15 feet, and has the ability to run the floor as well as Tyler Zeller did. The question is, will he? Because of Carolina's lack of size, Johnson will see a lot of playing time early. James is more of a Big East, beat-you-up center than the athletic types Carolina is used to. He has broad shoulders and big hips, giving him great ability to control the low post. He doesn't have many offensive moves right now, as he primarily catches it with his back to basket and just turns and scores. But his role early on will be to come off the bench and rebound on both ends. -- Paul Biancardi

The expectation
The most surprising thing about North Carolina's recent history is its penchant for the "clunker." During the last 10 years -- amidst two national championships, five No. 1 seeds and a mother lode of lottery picks -- the Tar Heels have also missed the NCAA tournament three times. The most recent "miss" (2010) followed a dominant national title team and a mass exodus to the NBA.

Last season's Tar Heels were supposed to follow the same dominating script, and in many ways they did. Carolina won 32 times, captured the ACC regular-season title outright and featured multiple lottery picks. But there was no national championship; rather, there was a laid egg in the Midwest Regional final against Kansas (shades of the '08 Final Four, anyone?) and a general feeling of lost opportunity after their four NBA first-rounders left Chapel Hill empty-handed.

Odds are the returning rotation players, led by McAdoo, and the usual blue-chip freshmen will keep UNC at a Sweet 16 level. But there is at least some chance the Tar Heels stumble more than a little bit in an ACC filled with worthy challengers in Raleigh, Durham and Tallahassee. I have Carolina as a No. 3 seed to start the school year, but I think it is more likely the Heels fall short of that projection than exceed it.

 

NCSU
The key: Four returning starters
Stat to know: 262

Mark Gottfried's first season in Raleigh put the Wolfpack back on the map, culminating in the team's first trip to the NCAA tournament since Herb Sendek's final season in 2005-06. With four experienced starters returning and a star-studded class of incoming freshmen, Gottfried's second season brings heightened expectations.



NC State Wolfpack
Last season: 24-13 (9-7 ACC)
Finished: Sweet 16 (lost to Kansas)
2012-13 projected starting lineup
G: Lorenzo Brown (Jr.)
G: Rodney Purvis (Fr.)
F: Scott Wood (Sr.)
F: C.J. Leslie (Jr.)
C: Richard Howell (Sr.)
There are many reasons to believe this NC State squad can be better than the one that took Kansas -- the eventual runner-up in the NCAA tournament -- to the limit in the Sweet 16 last season.

It starts in the frontcourt, where potential NBA first-rounder C.J. Leslie returns for a third season after finishing his sophomore campaign like the player the Wolfpack expected him to be when he was dubbed ESPN's No. 11 recruit in the class of 2010.

"If he can play the way he did the last 15 games of the season, he will be [an NBA-caliber] player," said Wolfpack associate head coach Bobby Lutz. "I mean, if you're going back statistically and you watch tapes of how hard he played, I think that's what he's got to do the whole year. Once he was healthy in his last 15 games, he played very well and with great effort."

Leslie averaged 17.1 points and eight rebounds during that span of games, coming against the heart of the ACC schedule and tough tournament foes San Diego State, Georgetown and KU.

He'll be joined up front by strong senior Richard Howell, who nearly averaged a double-double (10.8 ppg, 9.2 rpg) and was the conference's third-leading rebounder a season ago. Senior Scott Wood, a rangy sharpshooter, is a three-year starter and connected on 95 3-pointers last year. Junior Lorenzo Brown made a smooth transition to point guard last season, finishing as the ACC's second-leading assist man (6.3 apg), and rounds out a group of experienced returners who have 262 career starts among them.

Strong combo forward T.J. Warren and heady pass-first point guard Tyler Lewis are ESPN 100 recruits expected to make an immediate impact, but neither are as important to 2012-13 as Rodney Purvis, ESPN's No. 20 recruit in 2012. Purvis was cleared Monday by the NCAA after initially being ruled ineligible. Now that Gottfried knows he has Purvis for this season, the 6-foot-4 scorer will likely start and could take the Wolfpack from a good offensive team to a great one. -- Joe Kaiser

The flaw: Lack of depth, inexperienced bench
Stat to know: 190

Last season, NC State used a rotation of seven -- sometimes eight -- players and managed to get away with it by steering clear of injuries. Staying injury free is again a major key in 2012-13, as the Wolfpack work with a limited rotation that won't exceed nine players.

The big difference this year is experience. Gottfried had senior guard Alex Johnson (19.5 mpg) and 6-9, 231-pound junior DeShawn Painter (20 mpg) to turn to last season, but that's no longer the case. Painter transferred to Old Dominion, and his departure raises serious questions about the depth in the frontcourt.

The Wolfpack now must count on 7-foot junior Jordan Vandenberg, who redshirted last season (shoulder injury), and little-used sophomore Thomas de Thaey to play a bigger role.

"Defensively, Vandenberg is the guy who, if he can step up and help us in all phases of the game, just his size alone he can be a defensive presence," Lutz said. "Painter came in off the bench and always guarded the best post player when he was in the game to take him off of C.J. or Richard. That's what we'd like for Jordan to do, to guard the best post player, and to be able to guard him one-on-one so we don't have to help so much when he's in the game."

If Vandenberg and de Thaey struggle, look for Gottfried to use the freshman Warren (ESPN's No. 29 in 2012) to supply strength inside. Now listed at 6-foot-8 and 233 pounds on the team website, Warren's versatility will allow him to play either forward spot.

Lewis adds a savvy ball-handler to a bench unit that combined to play only 190 minutes (from Vandenberg's seven games and de Thaey) last season. -- Joe Kaiser

The freshmen
Gottfried has re-energized NC State through a faster brand of basketball and keeping the local talent home. This class finished ranked No. 10 and features three freshmen, in particular, who will work well in Gottfried's UCLA shuffle-cut offense and help make the Wolfpack preseason favorites to win the ACC.

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Jack Arent
Cleared by the NCAA, Rodney Purvis raises NC State's 2012-13 ceiling.
Purvis brings NBA athleticism and explosiveness and a competitive spirit to the court. In the transition game, he's virtually unstoppable going from 3-point line to 3-point line and is a major threat with the ball in his hands or filling the lane. At the rim, he elevates over defenders and has terrific body control while contact really doesn't affect him. The knock on Purvis is his outside shooting, but he's improved and can be a capable perimeter threat. Defensively, he will guard the ball well, but he can get lost chasing his man off screens, which he'll improve in time. Purvis will make an immediate impact and bring the Wolfpack faithful out of their seats with highlight plays at the rim.

Lewis is the table setter who will come in and look immediately to make the throw-ahead pass in the transition game. Lewis always plays the game one possession ahead in his mind. While he's a terrific passer, Lewis can knock down an open shot if left open and is finishing better at the rim. As he continues to get stronger, he will be able to accept contact without it affecting what he wants to do with the ball in his hands. On defense, he needs to improve on keeping opposing guards from getting into the lane. Lewis will be used in different ways -- he can give Brown some relief, or they can play together with Brown moving to the shooting guard spot.

Simply put, Warren can score the ball in his sleep. He's willing and able to shoot it from distance with range and accuracy, and he has a smooth pull-up jumper from mid-range. He is crafty when approaching the bucket, knowing how to draw the foul and get points from the free throw line. Warren can play small forward and would really be a matchup problem at power forward, as other bigs would not be able to stay with him. He'll make an immediate impact one way or another, but if the Wolfpack were playing a game tomorrow, it would not surprise me to see Warren in the starting lineup. -- Paul Biancardi

The expectation
What a difference a year, and a coach, can make. In March, Gottfried and his team sat on the edge of their seats wondering whether they would receive an at-large bid for their solid season. NC State got into the tournament, then won its way to the Sweet 16, finishing with a 24-13 record and moving into the driver's seat for preseason expectations in the 2012-13 ACC race.

Gottfried has some horses, and also momentum and hope, something NC State simply has not had in a while. Leslie and Brown can be All-ACC performers, and Wood is one of the nation's best shooters, who can stretch the floor and allow operating room. Add a double-double guy in Richard Howell and an outstanding recruiting class, and NC State has every reason to believe the Final Four is a legitimate destination.

The only caveat is experience in winning and sustaining excellence through expectations, and but the Wolfpack received a big boost Monday when freshman Purvis was cleared to play by the NCAA. The blue-chip recruit is a difference maker, the kind of player who could be ACC Rookie of the Year. Before he was cleared, Purvis was deemed ineligible to play because the NCAA didn't like some of his high school classes, despite the fact that Purvis performed in a stellar fashion in NC State's Summer Start program. But that's all a moot point now.

With Purvis, NC State has the talent to unseat Duke and North Carolina and win a league title. But even if the Wolfpack fall a little short of that, finishing in the top three of the ACC also means finishing in the top 20 in the nation. That's NC State's new, and legit, expectation. Without Purvis, I saw the Wolfpack closing in on 30 wins and reaching the Sweet 16. With Purvis, they are Elite Eight-good, with a legitimate shot at a Final Four berth. NC State was "one player away." Purvis is that player. -- Jay Bilas

 

Duke
The keys: Veteran starters
Stat to know: 82.4 percent

Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski is looking to turn the page quickly from a 2011-12 season that ended without an NCAA tournament win, and he just might have the roster to do it as he enters his 33rd season at the ACC school.

The Blue Devils won't have the luxury of turning to Austin Rivers, their polarizing guard who led the team in scoring as a true freshman (15.5 ppg) before leaving for the NBA. But they will be stronger in a number of ways.

First and foremost, they will be more experienced.



Duke Blue Devils
Last season: 27-7 (13-3 ACC)
Finished: Round of 64 (lost to Lehigh)
2012-13 projected starting lineup
G: Tyler Thornton (Jr.)
G: Seth Curry (Sr.)
F: Alex Murphy (Fr.)
F: Ryan Kelly (Sr.)
C: Mason Plumlee (Sr.)
In fact, 60 percent of their starting five will consist of seniors (Seth Curry, Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee). That's a major shift from a season ago, when the Blue Devils often gave the ball to Rivers and spread the floor for him to create offense.

Duke associate head coach Chris Collins says the importance of a senior-led squad shouldn't be underestimated.

"When you're a senior, no matter what, you know that this is the last go-round," said Collins. "I think with all three of these guys -- Mason, Ryan and Seth -- they know not only individually but also team-wise that this is it for them and they really want to leave their mark on this program as seniors."

It will largely fall on the three seniors to take on an increased scoring role to fill Rivers' void, who played 82.4 percent of available minutes last season, and redshirting senior guard Andre Dawkins' production (8.4 ppg).

"Our three main scorers are going to be our seniors," Collins said. "We feel like Seth Curry, Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee -- all three of those guys are able to average between 15 and 18 points a game if they play well and do what we expect them to do."

The Blue Devils are also deeper (they will use a 10-man rotation this year), taller and more athletic than last season, with four highly touted freshmen (SF Alex Murphy, SF/PF Amile Jefferson, SG Rasheed Sulaimon and C Marshall Plumlee) expected to make an immediate impact.

"We have some young pieces, but we feel like the foundation of our team is our three seniors, and then you add Tyler Thornton, who has played a lot and been very solid for us, with Josh Hairston as well," Collins said. "Five of our 10 guys are juniors and seniors and a lot of times you don't see that as much in college basketball with guys going to the pros and guys transferring."

One position to watch is small forward, where Hairston will battle Murphy and Jefferson for the starting spot. -- Joe Kaiser

The flaw: Inexperienced bench
Stat to know: 117.8

As talented and highly regarded as Duke's bench unit is, it's almost entirely unproven to this point. This is one of the few questions with an otherwise balanced and well-rounded Blue Devils team.

It remains to be seen who will get the starting nod at point guard (Thornton or Quinn Cook) and small forward (Murphy, Hairston, Jefferson), but no matter who starts at those spots, the Blue Devils will have no more than two reserves with any college experience.

If Hairston earns a starting spot ahead of Murphy and Jefferson, point guard will be the only position with any experience off the bench.

Cook played only 11.7 minutes a game as a freshman but had a 117.8 offensive rating and could give Duke's bench a big lift this season.

"I expect a big jump this year out of him this year as a sophomore," Collins said of Cook. "He battled knee injuries last year as a freshman, which put him behind. He played at the point guard spot and could never really catch up after missing time early in the year. He had a great summer and I think he's poised to break out and have a really great year for us."

Cook (Recruiting Nation's No. 38 recruit in 2011) is one thing, but if Duke is to advance deep in the NCAA tournament this season, it will need more of its young players to play key roles.

Recruiting Nation's assessment of Duke's talented young core suggests that this should be possible, with Plumlee (No. 35 recruit in 2011), Murphy (No. 41 in 2011), Sulaimon (No. 12 in 2012) and Jefferson (No. 25 in 2012).

"We expect all those guys to help us this year, specifically Alex Murphy and Amile Jefferson," said Collins. "They are both talented and both very capable. We are going to need them to really help us on that front line, especially to be able to match up against those guys that are 6-foot-7 or 6-8." -- Joe Kaiser

The freshmen
The Blue Devils signed two new players, but they will roll out four new faces. Krzyzewski redshirted a pair of freshmen last season in forward Murphy and center Plumlee, who both were top-40 players coming out of high school and will have expanded roles this year. Murphy is a stretch forward who added muscle and is now listed at 220 pounds. Plumlee is an energetic, spirited kid who will sacrifice his body and take instruction well. He needed the extra year to mature physically.


Davide De Pas for ESPN.com
Amile Jefferson will bring a unique skill set to Duke.
This season's class begins with power forward Jefferson. The Philadelphia native is 6-8 and less than 200 pounds, but he thrives in the lane. He's a baseline slasher whose quick reflexes and enormous wingspan help him in the paint, and he's a reflexive rebounder. Jefferson's not a perimeter player and isn't traditional with his approach in the lane. He's a blue-collar kid with a desire to play hard and counts his motor as his top overall attribute. At the 2011 NBA Camp, he led the event in scoring despite a broken finger. With Jefferson, there's always the will to find a way, and he'll make an immediate impact.

The other freshman is sniper Sulaimon. Known for his long-range abilities, Sulaimon improved his game off the dribble as a high school senior. There's potential for him to be a good defender at Duke because he's a communicator and cerebral young man. He's an excellent student, which will show on offense as he's a thinking man's shooting guard.

Between the two new freshmen and the two redshirts, there's talent in this group, but maybe not an alpha male who will be in a position to step forward and take charge. But each player brings a different skill to the table, and guys will separate themselves during the fall. Coach K values communication and defensive principles at the highest level. Plumlee is at the top of the food chain as a talker and his personality is fun-loving, and the other three should adjust quickly. -- Dave Telep

The expectation
In many ways, Duke can only "underachieve" when it comes to NCAA tournament performance. With a No. 1 seed in more than 40 percent (12) of the tourneys played since the field expanded to 64-plus teams -- let that sink in for a moment! -- the shock isn't that the Blue Devils were upset by Lehigh a year ago, but that it hasn't happened more often. When the expectation is a Final Four spot (also 12 appearances) and/or a national championship (four), sometimes the only way to go is down.

Having said all that, the 2012-13 season is a rare one in which the Devils have a chance to "overachieve." North Carolina, North Carolina State and perhaps both Miami and Florida State have more pure talent. Duke is unusually inexperienced on the perimeter. And the last time Coach K and Co. were coming off the Olympics, the Blue Devils went just 11-5 in the ACC and got waxed in the Sweet 16 by Villanova.

It looks like a similar script this season. A good ACC season, but not a league title. A good NCAA seed, but not a No. 1. The positive is that Duke can only go up from last season, and this March will be a better one. The Blue Devils will win a game in the tournament and could reach the Sweet 16, although that still won't match the standards Duke has become accustomed to with Coach K. -- Joe Lunardi

 

"They talk those guys up every single year and we beat them every single year," Strickland said. "They are the least of our worries. Beat us one year and then they can talk smack. Until then, you can't put them in the mix."

 

I always enjoy large expectations for State because that's when they have their biggest failures.

 

Yep, pretty much.