2013 Previews

from Insider
Atlanta
When most people evaluate offseason moves, they focus mainly on the year ahead. But let's forget about the 2013 season for a second and think about the future.

This week, we're taking a look at every major league team to determine its optimal year for contention over the next five years. This doesn't mean this is the only year that it will contend, but rather which year should provide its best chance for a World Series title.

To determine this, we looked at current talent, age of roster, farm system, payroll as well as free agents who figure to be available that could help the team reach its goal.

NL East: Braves | Marlins | Mets | Nationals | Phillies
NL Central: Wednesday, January 16
NL West: Thursday, January 17
AL East: Friday, January 18
AL Central: Saturday, January 19
AL West: Sunday, January 20
Window of Contention: Series home


Atlanta Braves
Optimal year of contention: 2015

Overview
The Braves may have won 94 games in 2012, but keeping up with the Nationals in the NL East isn't going to be easy for the next few seasons. They've replaced center fielder Michael Bourn with B.J. Upton, but Chipper Jones' retirement has left a hole in the middle of their lineup. It also doesn't help that catcher Brian McCann will miss some time after shoulder surgery.

They do have a solid core of young players on the mound and in the field, but it will be a couple of years before that group peaks, and they are helped by they fact that they don't have much dead weight in salary.

Extension candidates
Freddie Freeman, 1B (eligible for free agency after 2016): He won't cost top dollar to sign long-term because he's not a 30-plus homer guy. But just in case he happens to become that any time over the next few years, the Braves would be smart to try to extend him now at a price reasonable for a first baseman who can hit .280 with 25 homers.

ATL payroll outlook
An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.

YEAR GS
2013 $56M (7)
2014 $28M (12)
2015 $27M
2016 $15M
2017 $16M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Jason Heyward, RF (2015): One of the reasons that B.J. Upton was able to land such a lucrative contract despite an inconsistent career is that he's still young and talented players rarely reach free agency at just 28 years old. Heyward will be 26 when he's eligible for free agency after the 2015 season. Cha-ching! After bouncing back from an injury-plagued sophomore season in 2011, there's not much doubt that Heyward is on his way to becoming one of the premier outfielders in the National League and the new face of the franchise of the Braves.

Craig Kimbrel, CL (2016): Already one of the most dominant closers in the game at age 24, Kimbrel has a 1.46 ERA, 89 saves and a 15.9 K/9 in 163 career relief appearances. Young dominant closers are rare, so any contract extension with Kimbrel would likely set a precedent in value.

Kris Medlen, RHP (2015): His salary in year one of arbitration won't be much more than around $2 million, because his stint as one of the best starting pitchers in baseball didn't start until he was moved from the bullpen in late July. If he keeps it up into the 2013 season and beyond, his price will continue to go through the roof.

Weaknesses
Young position players Freeman, Heyward and Andrelton Simmons are already in Atlanta, but there don't appear to be many others on the way in the near future. Catcher Christian Bethancourt is one of the best defensive catchers in the minors but has a long way to go with the bat.

Potential free agent targets
A replacement for Chipper Jones will be hard to come by over the next two offseasons. The best opportunity could come after the 2014 season when current Padres third baseman Chase Headley hits free agency. The Braves won't be the only team interested, and he won't come cheap, especially if his next two seasons are anything like his last. But he could be just what they need to put them over the top.

Trade bait
With several young pitching prospects closing in on the big leagues, the Braves could look to shop one of their current starters next offseason. Brandon Beachy or Mike Minor will have value as young, talented and controllable pitchers. If the Braves feel like a few of their up-and-coming prospects like Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Sean Gilmartin, J.R. Graham and Zeke Spruill are ready to start succeeding in the majors, it's almost a certainty they'll look to upgrade their offense through a trade(s).

Waiting in the wings
Teheran debuted in the majors in 2011 as a 20-year-old, but took a few steps backward in 2012 (5.08 ERA in 131 Triple-A innings) but still flashes top-of-the-rotation potential and has a very good chance to win a rotation spot to start the season. If he doesn't break through in 2013, look for Gilmartin or Graham to be given a shot the next time the rotation has an opening. If you're looking for a new face in the big-league lineup, Gattis has a chance to get some at-bats in left field in 2013.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Christian Bethancourt, C (2014); Evan Gattis, LF (2013); J.R. Graham, RHP (2014); Lucas Sims, RHP (2016); Julio Teheran, RHP (2013); Sean Gilmartin, LHP (2014)

 

Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies
Optimal year of contention: 2013

Overview
The Phillies' strong second half (44-31) reminded us that a great starting rotation can carry a team no matter how ordinary the rest of the team is. It wasn't quite enough to make up for an awful first half, though.

After their bullpen failed them for the majority of the season, the Phillies signed top setup man Mike Adams to bridge the gap to closer Jonathan Papelbon. The offense should be better with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley expected to be at full health for the start of the season after missing much of 2012. Speedy center fielder Ben Revere and veteran third baseman Michael Young were acquired in separate trades, and former top prospect Domonic Brown will finally get a chance to play every day.

If a lot of things go right, especially if all the aging veterans stay healthy and productive for a majority of the season, this team still can be very good. And if it's good enough to earn a wild-card spot, at least, anything can happen in the playoffs. More likely than not, good things will happen with the three aces -- Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels -- leading the way. The window might shut for a while, however, if they don't pull it off in 2013.

Extension candidates
Carlos Ruiz, C (eligible for free agency after 2013): Chooch will be 34 years old later this month and will serve a 25-game suspension for a positive amphetamine test to start the season, which puts his breakout 2012 season in question. The Phillies also have two pretty good catching prospects in Tommy Joseph and Sebastian Valle, who will be competing in 2013 for the title of Phillies catcher of the future. But if Ruiz returns from his suspension and resembles the hitter he was last season, it might be worth exploring a two-year extension. If the Phillies are losing and looking old, a youth movement with Joseph and/or Valle would be much likelier in 2014.

PHI payroll outlook
An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.

YEAR GS
2013 $150M (1)
2014 $102M (7)
2015 $85M
2016 $60M
2017 $32M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Weaknesses
This is a top-heavy roster without a lot of depth in the majors or minors. It appears that the Phillies' starting pitcher will be Kyle Kendrick or John Lannan about 40 percent of the time. Kendrick finished the season on a roll and Lannan is a solid No. 5 starter, but teams will be licking their chops when either pitcher is on the mound and Halladay, Lee or Hamels is not. They Phillies also are projected to start the unproven Brown at one corner-outfield spot and some combination of John Mayberry Jr., Laynce Nix and Darin Ruf at another spot. Although I can talk up the starting infielders by saying they have a combined 18 All-Star appearances and two MVPs among the four of them, it's hard to ignore that their average age is 34 and they are in the decline phases of their careers.

Potential free-agent targets
One potential difference-maker on the free-agent market could energize an aging lineup: Michael Bourn. He was drafted by the Phillies in 2003 and broke into the majors with them before being traded to Houston in the deal for closer Brad Lidge. Bourn and Revere could wreak havoc on the basepaths and cover a ton of ground in left and center field, helping a pitching staff that will already be tough to score against.

Trade bait
You can be sure that GM Ruben Amaro Jr. will explore trades for many of his veterans if things get ugly and the Phillies aren't anywhere close to contending in July. This past July, he traded away Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino with his team 12 games under .500 and 13 games out of a playoff spot. If he finds his team in a similar situation, expect him to consider dealing anyone on that roster. You also can expect Philly veterans with any type of no-trade clause to realize that the window has probably closed for contending and to consider waiving it.

Waiting in the wings
The Phillies hope Young proves to be a capable stopgap at third base in 2013 while Cody Asche progresses in the upper minors to the point where they feel comfortable handing him the starting job in 2014. The 22-year-old, who posted an .849 OPS between high Class A Clearwater and Double-A Reading last season, has some question marks defensively, so he'll need to show improvement there before the Phillies can officially call off their search for a third baseman. They haven't had a homegrown talent manning the hot corner since Scott Rolen did from 1996 to 2002.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Tommy Joseph, C (2014); Sebastian Valle, C (2014); Cody Asche, 3B (2014); Brody Colvin, RHP (2015); Jonathan Pettibone, RHP (2013); Jesse Biddle, LHP (2014)

 

Nationals (fuckers just signed Soriano )
When most people evaluate offseason moves, they focus mainly on the year ahead. But let's forget about the 2013 season for a second and think about the future.

This week, we're taking a look at every major league team to determine their optimal year for contention during the next five years. This doesn't mean it is the only year in which they will contend, but rather which year should provide their best chance for a World Series title.

To determine this, we looked at current talent, age of roster, farm system and payroll, as well as free agents who might be available to help them reach their goal.

NL East: Braves | Marlins | Mets | Nationals | Phillies
NL Central: Wednesday, January 16
NL West: Thursday, January 17
AL East: Friday, January 18
AL Central: Saturday, January 19
AL West: Sunday, January 20
Window of Contention: Series home


Washington Nationals
Optimal year of contention: 2013

Overview
The Nationals had a good chance to win it all in 2012, and that window for contention is unlikely to close the next several years. With this in mind, playing it safe with ace Stephen Strasburg and shutting him down in early September was likely a much easier decision for the front office to make.

The Nationals expect to be back in the postseason and there's no reason to think they won't be. Four of their five starting pitchers, as well as the core of their lineup and bullpen, are under team control through at least the next three seasons. More importantly, they are a talented bunch with a good balance of veteran leaders, young stars, and All-Star-caliber players in the prime of their career.

Extension candidates
Ian Desmond, SS (eligible for free agency after 2015): Indians shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera had his final year of arbitration and one year of free agency bought out for $16.5 million after he hit 25 homers and stole 17 bases in his age-25 season. Desmond had similar numbers in 2012 (25 HR, 21 SB) during his age-26 season, but is under team control for three more years.

WAS payroll outlook
An estimate of guaranteed salary (GS) over the next five seasons, with the number arbitration-eligible players in parentheses.

YEAR GS
2013 $78M (8)
2014 $55M (12)
2015 $49M
2016 $48M
2017 $36M
*Source: Cot's Contracts
Bryce Harper, OF (2018): Consider that Harper would be only 26 years old when he's first eligible for free agency and that there's a good chance he's the premier power hitter in the game by then. If he is, a $300 million contract doesn't seem too far-fetched. Buying out his arbitration years and adding a few club options in the $20 million to $25 million range might be of interest to Harper and his agent, Scott Boras, but I have a feeling they'll wait it out, as Boras clients usually do.
Jordan Zimmermann, RHP (2015): He'll be just 29 years old when he hits free agency three offseasons from now. Barring injury, he could be the most sought-after starting pitcher on the market.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP (2016): The Nats might have some leverage because Strasburg is still four years from free agency and understands the injury risks that come with throwing a baseball for a living. Boras (also his agent) is more likely to just wait it out, however, unless his client gets a massive deal that would make him one of the highest-paid pitchers in the game.

Weaknesses
Starting pitching depth in the upper minors is where the Nats are most vulnerable. If one of their starting five is injured, you could see the likes of Yunesky Maya or Ryan Perry in Washington. Christian Garcia, a former Yankees prospect who returned from two Tommy John surgeries to make his big league debut out of the Nats' bullpen late last season, might be their most intriguing option but that could require him to start the season in the Triple-A rotation, when he could very well be making an impact as a big league reliever.

Finding a veteran upgrade late in the offseason to serve as the team's designated No. 6 starter while pitching in Triple-A might be the best option. We'll call it "the John Lannan role."

Potential free-agent targets
The team has re-signed first baseman Adam LaRoche to a two-year, $24 million deal, which gives it a pretty good trade chip in Michael Morse. Morse, who also can play first, becomes the odd man out, what with Harper, Denard Span, and Jayson Werth already penciled into the three starting outfield spots. Finding a lefty setup man to replace Sean Burnett has been a challenge this offseason, but Boone Logan and Eric O'Flaherty are free agents who could be of interest next offseason.

Trade bait
Span is signed to a team-friendly contract through the 2014 season, with a reasonable $9M club option for 2015. Depending on how quickly prospect Brian Goodwin is ready for the majors, the Nats could shop Span before one of the next two offseasons to open up center field and the leadoff spot for the talented youngster. Or they could use Goodwin as a trade chip to strengthen their 25-man roster.

Waiting in the wings
The presence of third-base prospect Anthony Rendon, the sixth pick in the 2011 draft, could be a big reason why the Nats refused to add a third year to their contract offer for LaRoche. The 22-year-old is close to being major league ready and could possibly break in as the regular first baseman, with Ryan Zimmerman entrenched at the hot corner.

Future regulars (ETA in parentheses): Anthony Rendon, 3B (2013); Brian Goodwin, CF (2014); Lucas Giolito, RHP (2015); Nathan Karns, RHP (2014); Sammy Solis, LHP (2014)