What awful thing will happen today?

A lot, and yes

 

The only two seasons where Marshall started at least ten games were his last two in Carolina, while Martin was a backup in Jacksonville and Chicago. Those two weren't "hits" in the second round, they're simply less bad than Hurney's bigger misses.

That depends entirely upon your criteria for hits and misses, and as noted, yours are pretty generous. Most people would conclude that Hurney was pretty awful in the second round.

 

https://www.iheart.com/alternate/am...fter-having-baby-with-instagram-model-report/

 

He hasn't been great, but neither has been awful when you put things in perspective. Just looking around the division, I did a quick evaluation of the period between 2007 and 2017, just because I feel the jury could still be out on players just finishing their second year and I didn't credit Hurney with either Jackson or Little.

So first and best, New Orleans has done really well with Michael Thomas and Marcus Williams, but Hau'oli Kikaha flamed out and Stanley Jean-Baptiste never even caught fire. Tracy Porter was an ok selection, maybe on par with Richard Marshall. Charles Brown is a depth player at best.

Atlanta has done well with Deion Jones and got lucky with Robert Alford. William Moore's been good, and Justin Blalock has been a steady contributor. Peter Konz and Ra'Shede Hageman were terrible, and Jalen Collins never went anywhere.

Tampa Bay's had a ridiculous amount of selections, with my favorite by far of Roberto Aguayo. Donavon Smith has been good and steady, as has Ali Marpet. Justin Evans can't stay healthy. Johnthan Banks was a disappointment, as were Da'Quan Bowers, Brian Price, and Aaron Sears. Sabby Piscitelli looked like he might develop, then didn't. Noah Spence and Austin Seferian-Jenkins never did anything in Tampa, and haven't done a lot since. And Dexter Jackson was maybe their worst non-kicker pick. To their credit, they did land Lavonte David in the second, and he's maybe the best second rounder in the division after Michael Thomas.

So New Orleans hit on three out of six players, Atlanta got four out of seven, and Tampa Bay was a dreadful three out of 11. 10 out of 24 total for our three closest competitors.

With that perspective, Hurney's 40% hit rate in his last 10 drafts isn't as bad as you might think. And to his credit, he's pretty much been money in the first, which is where you get your better players anyway.

 

I realize I'm beating a dead horse here but Hurney doesn't have a 40% hit rate in the second round. No one outside of his own family would agree with you about that.

 

I appreciate your thinking on it, but to me a hit is just a second year starter. If we only look at pro bowl players, everyone else's success rate goes down also.

Drafting is a lot harder than it looks.

 

If it was baseball that would be one hell of an average.

 

I do agree with Cyberjag about the scarcity of good GMs. It just sort of is what it is. Competence is scarce.