Running Red Sox thread

The thing you need to remember about both the Pedroia and Youkilis deals is that they would not have been eligible for free agency for years to come. The Red Sox got both at what you perceive to be discount prices because they were only competing against what those guys would make in arbitration. For instance, Youkilis had been scheduled to make $3 million this season, while he probably would have made about $5 million in arbitration next season and around $7 mil in 2010. So basically Boston is buying out two years of free agency (2011 & 2012) for a little less than $30 million.

 

Youkilis was eligible for free agency after the 2010 season and the club has an option for a fifth year. Pedroia's eligible after 2012 and the club also has an option for a seventh year on his contract. So in effect they bought out three years of free agency on each player.

All that irrelevant bullshit aside, if Boston winds up picking up the club options on both players, they'll have paid Pedroia an average of $7.3 million for seven years and Youkilis an average of $11 million for five. Only in your world are those not considered "discount prices."

 

Here comes my attrition theory in action. He will keep going back and forth until you are sick of him then he considers it a victory.

 

I know. I'm feeling owned already

 

I'm aware that you already see how I'm right, but I'm going to explain this anyway for other people who might be confused. Let's say there's some agreement which allows you to buy propane for $1 a gallon each of the next two years, but after that you're expecting to pay around $3 a year. If you go ahead and agree to pay $2.50 a gallon for the next five years, that sounds like a substantial discount from $3 a gallon until you factor in that you were only going to pay $1 a gallon for the next two years.

Similarly, when you say that Boston gets Youkilis for $11 million a year, that sounds like a pretty good bargain until you factor in the reality that Youkilis wouldn't have gotten nearly that much in arbitration over the next two seasons. Like I said, he would have made about $5 million next season and $7-$8 million for 2010. So once you take out those arbitrarion years, they bought out two years of free agency at a little less than $15 million per season. Or if you want to assume they pick up the team option in 2013, then it would be closer to $14 million a season for those first three years of free agency.

So it's not a bargain by any means, but it is still a smart move by the Red Sox because they get to pay for the best years of Youkilis' prospective free agency without having to pay for the bad ones at the tail end of his career too. Because he's a late bloomer, he'll already be 34 at the end of this contract. Paying more money now means that Boston wouldn't have to buy more years later. So I'm saying it's a smart move, but you didn't understand why. You thought it was a good deal because you just simplistically looking at a yearly average, but you forgot all about arbitration, and in arbitration years guys don't make nearly as much money as they get in free agency. Just be clear that I'm not panning Boston's decision at all. This was a good move for them, just not for the reason you thought.

 

I agree. They got him at a bargain.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/04/business/media/04globe.html?_r=1&hp

 

first place

 

Jason Bay has now his 14 homers, 56 RBIs and had a BA/OBP/Sl% of 306/408/571 in 68 games with the Red Sox. Over a full season that works out to 33 homers and 133 RBIs. There is some margin here, if you take into account home-away splits. The point is, they're really not missing Manny as much as one might think. Bay's stats may even be better. He's a definite upgrade in the field, on the bases and in the clubhouse. Here's hoping they can sign him to at least four years.

 

Fuck, this Papi thing has me bummed out.

On the bright side though, apparently the Sox's starters have the worst ERA in the AL, Pedroria and Youk have had some injuries and the Sox are still right there near first place.

So we have that going for us. Which is nice.