Where is the bottom ?

We've already seen a couple of retailers go bankrupt due to their heavy debt loads this year. That will only get worse next year for retailers (especially mall retailers) as I don't see any reason for an explosion of consumer spending next year.

One of the major nationwide mall companies is about to go under. They have about a Billion coming due in 1Q next year and I just don't see how they will get it refi'd or extended.

 

Dow taking a beating today. Down over 600. We just learned we are in a recession according to the media.

 

Yea,the recession started in December of 2007 according to the Government.

 

the period we are entering will be an era of merged companies and smaller companies being bought out by strong ones. this is appartent right now in the scrap iron business, as I have been watching one company in particular purchase three small ones in gaston county in the last five weeks. they will own the other three within the next five weeks. the short staple textile industry will continue its downward spiral, with the sole surviving companies being parkdale, mount vernon and milliken. the US carpet industry is on its back, with Shaw and Mohawk being closed for five of the last seven weeks this year. rumors are spreading about a possible merger between the two, affecting possibly 1500 jobs nationwide.

most small textile companies are running purely on government contracts. but some of these contracts have been put on hold by the current admin.

we havent hit bottom yet, but its in sight.

many believe that our future depends upon how fast the auto and housing industries turn around. the figures quoted to me are 4 of 10 jobs nationwide are greatly affected by those two industries.


i own two small business, one manuf, one service, and i've watched our customers go from paying in 45-60 days to putting off payments to 120-160 days on average. large companies cant borrow money and are closing overseas operations due to this (three that i can attest too as of now).

small business are either being told no to refinancing, told to put up their personal property or offered rates of prime plus 5,6 or 7. who the hell can afford that???

currently, I'm watching my competitors drop like flies, but I've also lost 5% of my customer base last month due to closings. If I can survive this, I've got it made, but it has to turn around in the next six months, or I will just be a statistic like the rest. my main competitor just jacked his prices up by 38%....wonder how long he'll be around????

 

Not even close to being over..

 

cheeze, hope you make it through man. You will be in a great position if you do!!!

 

thanks, hope so too, i have seven families depending on me, i told my guys today "if we have to shovel shit to get through this, we will"

 

The lumber business isin't doing any better. I know some very scared old men.

 

I like your attitude. Good Luck !!!