2008 MLB predictions

I agree that there's no way of telling that he's going to be great yet, but i disagree with Collin saying he got lucky. And i couldn't agree with you more about the white sox, i hate them so much, especially A.J. Pierzynski and their announcers. Whose your team?

 

The cubs. My uncle finished his career at wrigley and since then I have been bleeding cubbie blue.

 

He had 32 on the season, which is only about 10-15 more than the average starting pitcher. That's useful, but doesn't make up for the fact that his strikeout rate is so much lower than elite pitchers. Plus ground balls actually go for hits at a higher rate than fly balls, although less often for extra-base hits.

In any case, you're a tribe homer, so my logic is not going to persuade you and your bias is certainly not going to sway me. That means further discussion would be pretty much pointless.

 

Carmona

Listen, sinker ball pitchers don't get a lot of strike outs and give up a lot of hits. The good ones are able to escape trouble when they give up these hits. And when you say elite pitchers, of other "elite" pitchers who also throw a sinker, the only other two i can think of are Chien Ming Wang and Brandon Webb. Though Webb's strikeout numbers are higher and his ERA is a little lower he also gave up a lot of hits and Carmona had better a groundout to flyout ratio. As for Wang, Carmona's numbers were better than his in basically every category. Now i'm not saying Carmona is better than Brandon Webb who's a Cy Young winner, but i am saying that by the time Carmona is 28 he could easily be as good as Webb is now. Sinkerball pitchers aren't going to have the strikeout numbers that power pitchers have, thats not what they do , they are going to give up more baserunners, but again the good ones get out of it. So no you aren't going to persuade me that Fausto Carmona got lucky, and not because i'm an indians fan, but because i guarantee you that you'd be hardpressed to find any MLB analyst who agrees with you, and i also guarantee that there's not one hitter in baseball who faced him that would say Carmona's not for real.

 

Because you're a Cleveland fan and because you really don't know much about baseball statistics. I imagine you didn't even know what LOB% and BABIP meant, but regarding the latter, it's been statistically proven that pitchers have little control over whether or not a ball hit in play goes for a hit. Some years guys will get lucky and some years they'll be unlucky, but for the most part pitchers should end up with a BABIP of around .295-.300. Even legitimately great pitchers like Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez have hovered around .290 over their careers.

Plus, groundball pitchers actually tend to be a little higher than flyball pitchers, as previously noted, so Carmona was particularly lucky in '07 with a BABIP of .281. That's almost certainly going to rise, so he's going to give up more hits, and that's going to mean an increased ERA as well. And no, Carmona isn't as good as Webb and probably won't ever be. Obviously you want Carmona to be awesome because you're a Tribe fan, but your bias and ignorance are blinding you.

 

Admit he's a solid young pitcher with strong potential

Have you ever thought that maybe his BABIP is so low because it's so hard to get good wood on his sinker, or did your bias and ignorance blind you. I don't know why you can't recognize that he's a good pitcher who could develop into a very good pitcher. Who was the last pitcher you saw throw 94-96 with as much movement on his sinker as Carmona's? I know about baseball, i play and i watch a ton of games, i'm a spectator and a player, so i know about the game and the statistics. I know Carmona is a good pitcher, not from stats, but from watching his outings. I also would recognize a player on a team i hate such as Justin Verlander, or Bobby Jenks, or Joel Zumaya, or Jonathan Papelbon etc. as good players. I'm not trying say that Fausto Carmona is the best pitcher in the league, i'm saying he's a solid young pitcher with great potential. I don't see how you can deny that after he made A-Rod look absolutely ridiculous in game 2 of the ALDS. I don't see how you can be so sure that Carmona's numbers are gonna drop off so dramatically. I'd be willing to bet his strikeout numbers go up next year, and he wins at least 15 games. And you say i want Carmona to be awesome, as if it's never going to happen, HE'S 24! He won 19 games at 23, i'd say he has a bright future regardless of whether or not you think he got lucky.

 

Good lord, dude, I just explained this to you. No pitcher, sinkerballer or whatever, regularly posts a BABIP of .281. It just doesn't happen and hasn't in the history of the game. He got lucky, as some pitchers do every year. Guys do have BABIPs of .275-.290, but the next year their BABIPs almost always rise back into that .285-.305 range.

You know something about baseball, yes, but I know more. I'm not saying that just to be self-aggrandizing, but rather to explain why I'm able to understand this and you aren't. No one is suggesting that Carmona is a bad pitcher, but he unquestionably got lucky last season and it would be foolishness to expect a repeat in '08.

Because you don't understand those numbers, whereas I've been studying them among the sabermetric community for over a decade.

Wins depend more on the team than individual player quality. Hell, Tim Wakefield won 17 last season and Jon Garland won 18 the year before that.

 

As i just told you, i don't expect Carmona to have a season next year as good as he did last year, but i also think more than just luck went into it. Now i don't study sabermetrics (i read Moneyball), but i don't see why it isn't possible for Carmona to have at least a similar BABIP next year, not as good but close, between .285 and .290, and if he did would you say he got lucky again, or would you dub him as a very good pitcher? Torii Hunter was quoted saying, "I can't wait until we face normal pitchers. This guy's sinker is practically unhittable." That means something. There is no stat for what opposing hitters think, and if you played baseball, which i'm not sure if you do, you'd know that most of the game is mental. And when you go up to the plate seeing a guy throwing 95 with a lot of movement, i can guarantee you no hitter is looking forward to that. So i understand that you study the stats and think he got lucky, and maybe he did, but neither of us can really know until after he pitches a couple more seasons.

 

Tribefan, you can't argue with colon. He loves the argument and will continue, knowing he's wrong, just for the sake of arguing. Save your time and forget him. He thinks that he knows everything about anything, and if that helps him sleep better at night, it's fine by me if he goes on thinking that. Don't ever believe a word that comes out of his mouth and just let him do his thing. Carmona is good, he showed that by winning 19 games. Saying that Carmona is not good is like saying Nolan Ryan got lucky in throwing his 7 no no's. And you know what, if he doesn't know he's wrong then I am giving him waaaaay too much credit.

 

You don't see why it's possible because you don't know or understand the statistics. It's just like how people who didn't understand the Bernoulli principle couldn't grasp how a big metal contraption could get off the ground and fly. Many people including myself have looked at the historical data on BABIP, and there has never been any pitcher in the history of baseball who defied it for any extended period of time. It just doesn't happen. Great pitchers, and by those I mean true elites like Greg Maddux, hover around .290. Those who aren't among the best pitchers in history end up somewhere higher than that. No one, not Greg Maddux or anyone else, has ever been able to sustain a BABIP of .281 for any extended period of time.

Notice that I'm not saying Carmona will never have a BABIP of .281 again. It's entirely possible that he will, just as it's possible he'll have BABIPs over .320 again. Because luck plays such a big part, there is wide variation in seasonal BABIP. But it is extremely rare for pitchers to stay consistently in the .280s, and quite frankly, Carmona just isn't gifted enough to do that. For reference, he only cracked Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects list once in 2004, and that was only at #76.

It's quite clear that you haven't played baseball at any significant level, because no one who had would say something as dumb as "most of the game is mental." No amount of concentration will make you throw a 90+ mph fast ball. No amount of mental preparation will make your ball have a natural sink. Yes, the mental aspect of the game is important, but only if you already have the physical skills. That's why you and I aren't playing baseball professionally, because we lack the physical ability. If "most of the game was mental," I'd be getting ready for spring training.

Yes, I do. You already know that you're wrong, which is why you're trying to come up with excuses. Look, BABIP has been studied historically. Unless you're saying that Fausto Carmona is going to end up being one of the best pitchers of all-time, then yes, he got lucky. It happens. Even Brian Bannister had a great BABIP last year, but I doubt you'd find many non-Royals fans pretending that he'll do it again. Contrary to what LRDumbass is saying, though, I'm not suggesting Carmona is somehow a bad pitcher. I'm just saying that he doesn't have the statistics to support the idea that he's elite. He isn't and probably won't ever be, but while he's not as good as C.C. Sabathia, he's still pretty good in his own right.

How much of a moron are you, seriously? You're the one who agreed with me about Carmona, you dipshit. Now you're only disagreeing precisely because I made you feel bad about being such a complete idiot. You're choosing to disagree because of personal animus. I'm the one who only argues positions based on the actual facts, and the facts do back me up. Also note that when we've argued, you've been proven wrong time after time after time. You're the laughingstock who no one takes seriously, not only on TBR, but in your offline life as well. No one respects your intellect. I'm sure that even your own family is embarrassed about what a complete and total moron you are.