Running Red Sox thread

Sox offer three-year deal. I can imagine this being a sticking point. He'll want four years guaranteed money. There's precedence here, as the Sox gave into Varitek's wished for a fourth year.

 

No, it's the same. Why would the playoffs be any different? Usually pitchers will still be on the mound every fifth day, and hitters still play every day.

 

it's looking like the odds of the sox signing A-Rod are better than those of signing Lowell.

 

apparently, the Yankees still want to offer Lowell a contract (one report says four years at $55-60 million) and have him play first. If that's the case, bye-bye Lowell and have at it, Yankees.

 

Olney says that the Sox and Lowell are finalizing the deal. 3 years - 37.5 mil.

Sweet.

 

Most playoff rosters go with 4 man rotations (making it more in line with your statement about guys starting 40 times/regular season). And it's certainly not unheard of to have a guy start games 1, 4, and 7.

I am pretty sure that they biggest thing affecting odds in a baseball game is the starting pitcher, and since there is not a line in baseball, that means that they believe that the person with the biggest affect on winning or losing a game is the SP.

Finally - Paplebon has a WS of 12. There is no way in hell that you can say he is that much less important than Hanley.

 

hartford courant
(and probably a few other papers) say Sox have moved to the front of the pack of Santana trade suitors. If it's true, and if the package being offered is accurate, it's a good deal for both sides.

Lester and Crisp, along with Jed Lowrie and either Justin Masterson or Michael Bowden (Masterson more likely) for Santana. Ellsbury and Buccholz off the board.

how could the sox not make that deal? money (right) and holes that will have to be filled in the next couple years.

Apparently, Santana will want $25 million a year. that's insane. More than twice as much as Beckett makes. More than any other player on the team.

the thing is, the Sox don't need Santana. they don't need him now and they won't need him two or three years from now. what they will need is a catcher, a power-hitting outfielder, a shortstop (I can't see Lugo staying the starter three more years), and depth in their rotation (wakefield and schilling will be long gone). By not making the deal, they immediately take care of half those needs. Trading crisp for Varitek's eventiual replacement is a smart play. matt holliday becomes a free agent after the 09 season, like Manny's last with the Sox.

IMMFHO, the greatest benefit to getting santana is you keep the Yankees from getting him.

 

For that deal, it's a no brainer - it has to get done.

I agree on the costs, and would make damn sure that it wouldn't cause problems in the clubhouse.

Just thought of a potentially huge issuse though - he has a no trade clause now, right - the Sox won't go for that in the new contract.

 

Yeah, on its surface, it's a no-brainer. But when you look at the long view, it bcomes very much a brainer. two years, three at the most into this deal, there will be huge holes in the lineup, outside the rotation. The team holds options on Manny through the 2010 season. He's gone after that. Even with his diminishing production, that could amount to 30 HR and 100 RBI. Lowell will be gone after that season (conservatively, that's 20HR, 80 RBI by that time). Varitek's contract is up after the upcoming season. He could re-up for a couple years, but he'll be done by the end of 2010 if not sooner. Who knows what Ortiz's health will be like in 2010? Unless Lugo improves dramatically, he's probably done by the end of the same season. Schilling's gone after next season. Wakefield can't be far behind. Beckett is signed for two more years with a club opton for 2010. He's younger than Santana and has already proven he can handle the spotlight in Boston. Can Santana (who knows). If you pay Santana $25 million, how do you not rip up Beckett's contract and give him a big fat raise to keep him through, say, 2012 or 2013? And if you do, you'll be investing close to $50 million a year on two pitchers. Papelbon, Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury. They will all need to get paid. Lots of cash there. Plus throw in what you'll need to pay Manny's heir in left and find a third baseman (nothing in the farm now), unless they move Youk back, then they'd need a first baseman. It'll have to be a significant amount, because whoever that player is, he'll probably need to be a marquis name power hitter.

By not making the trade, you save a shitheap of money. You have rotation that has at least four quality arms (Beckett, Matsusaka, Buchholz, Lester) and possibly five if either Masterson or Bowden pans out. You can at least look at Jed Lowrie at short. You have cash to spend on a catcher, third baseman and leftfielder.

Of course, the Sox could spend even more than what they do now and go out and get Santana, and then buy a quality catcher, SS, 3B and OF when the time comes.

Getting Santana would be huge, but I'd love to see the sox win three or four titles with a lineup made up mostly of home-grown players. Does Santana make the Sox better. Of course. Will getting him hurt the team three or four years from now? I think it would.

 

oh, and if Santana gets six years at $150 million and wants a no trade clause on top of that, no deal. besides, if they want to trade him, it'll be because he's not performing at close to a $25 mill level and no one would want him anyway.