Super Bowl Predictions

Colts win 24-21

 

I'm actually surprised the overwhelming number of "experts" who are picking against the Bears. I thought it'd be more 60/40 than 90/10.

But when I think about it some more, maybe I'm delusional believing in the Bears. I mean, according to ESPN.com voters, Rex Grossman is the worst Super Bowl quarterback EVER. Now, granted, he's actually NOT played in a Super Bowl yet, but how can people who gather their sports information from ESPN be wrong?

I'll admit, I'm terribly biased. I want the Bears to win. But beyond my bias, the Bears have a very good chance to win. Some of their strengths (rushing offense, punt and kickoff returns) happen to be the Colts' biggest weaknesses (rushing defense, special teams coverage).

Yes, the Colts have the no. 2 rated offense in the NFL. I wish we had played up against the no. 1 rated offense (in yards gained) in the postseason just to know if we could stop a high-powered offense - oh wait - we did when we beat the Saints. I wish we played the 5th highest rated scoring offense in the NFL to show that we could stop a highly rated offense - oh wait - we did when we beat the Saints. Or the highest rated receiving offense in the NFL to show that we could stop a throwing offense - oh wait - we did when we beat the Saints.

The best way to beat the Colts is to run the football. And while pundits will tell you they've gotten much better, that's not necessarily true. In the postseason, the Chiefs, Ravens, and for whatever reason the Patriots had all but abandoned the run after halftime. Bad idea. Be patient. Wear them down. Remember the Saints were actually doing okay stuffing the run (Benson only had 60 yards on 24 carries) up until about the fourth quarter. By then, the Saints knew the Bears were running and they couldn't stop them. It demoralizes a defense.

I get it, Peyton Manning's a great QB, but where was he against the Chiefs or the Ravens or in the first half against the Patriots?

The Bears are once again being disrespected in their minds and the Colts are coming off the buzz of their biggest victory in Indianapolis football history. It's a perfect setup for an upset.

Bears 24 Colts 17

 

No Super Bowl QB has ever had more games with a QB rating below 40 in the same season than Grossman. While that may not mean he's the worst Super Bowl QB ever, it certainly means he's in the discussion. And the Colts got better against the run because Rob Morris took over at SLB, Bob Sanders returned, and Indy adjusted from its traditional cover-2 to a scheme that allowed Sanders to play closer to the line. Their improvement is real, although Chicago's best chance of success is to keep the ball on the ground. Really, unless you get a couple of turnovers, you don't have a chance.

 

I predict my TV will be muted during halftime. Haven't watched a halftime show in years.

 

Indy can't cover kicks. That's about the only area where Chicago has a clear advantage. If Hester can keep the Bears in good field position, and if Chicago forces some takeaways (which Indy is certainly capable of giving up), there is a chance. But pound for pound, the Colts are the better, well-rounded team.

Mariucci broke it down last night on NFLN, and you are correct, the Colts are playing Sanders closer to the LOS. That seems to be making the difference. Morris is a bigger body, so they can use him on running downs and keep June and Brackett in when Chicago goes to 3 wide.

I was suprised that everyone picked New Orleans, but I can't really say this week is shocking. The Colts should win. Doesn't mean they automatically will, but they should.

 

Colts 41 Bears 24

 

Has this SB been as hyped as past years? Probably has but last week was emotionally devastating for me so I'm really out of it these days. But it just seems I haven't seen and heard quite as much as in past years but it may just be me and my situation.

 

No, it definitely seems more muted. You'd think that Peyton getting to the Super Bowl would be a huge story, but I tend not to notice anything unless I'm watching ESPN. Maybe it's because they're both Midwest teams, who knows?

 

I agree that the Bear's best chance for success is to keep the ball on the ground. And all I'm saying is that I think they will be able to do it.

Gene Wojciechowski, in an article in ESPN.com, says it better than I do. Here is his quote:

 

His analogy makes no sense, look at the rushing offenses of KC, Baltimore, and NE throughout the course of the season. Indy shut those teams running games down, and two of them were statistically better than the Bears.

The Bears are going to have to score on ST or Defense to be in the game.